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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 29 April 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 30

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2670, -0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10692, 1.21%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3082, 0.35%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1323, -1.11%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
68.10, -0.44%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
3.05, -2.84%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1374, 14.49%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.2136, -1.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
109.09, 1.38%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10549, -0.28%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
35.87, -0.33%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.96%, 0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
205, -21.74%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
15.41, -8.71%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
128
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2654, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2688, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2611, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10460, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10375, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10266, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.02, -7.11%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.51, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
8
Bearish Indications
5
3
Outlook
Neutral
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – RBA rate decision, China PMI, UK- PMI’s, U.S – Home sales, ISM PMI’s, Oil inventories, FOMC rate decision, Employment data, Canada – Poloz speech, PMI   
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals april 30
Chart courtesy David Rosenberg 

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. The markets are gearing for a really big directional move likely post the FED next week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Indian market volatility is still well below US market volatility as the nifty is close to resistance while the US market has hit resistance and turned down. The critical levels to watch are 2680 (up) and 2660 (down) on the S & P and 10750 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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