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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 1 April 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 02

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2641, 2.03%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10114, 1.16%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3160, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1327, -1.67%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
64.94, -1.43%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.03, 1.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1080, -3.31%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2304, -0.42%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
106.41, 1.52%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10397, 2.29%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.70, 0.65%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.74%, -3.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
16, -88.01%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
19.97, -19.70%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
119
Neutral
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2704, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2730, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2589, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10245, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10518, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
10180, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
15.76, 1.37%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
65.03, 0.01%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
8
Bearish Indications
6
8
Outlook
Bearish
Neutral
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty bounced back last week. Indicators are mixed.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – RBA rate decision, Retail sales,  Japan – Tankan survey, China – PMI, Euro Zone – CPI, German PMI, UK – PMI’s, Carney speech, U.S – ISM PMI, Oil inventories, Employment data, Powell speech, Canada – PMI, Employment data,  India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals april 02
Image from marketwatch.com 
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rebounded last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. Given the extremely bearish sentiment and the 200 DMA hold a short term bottom is likely in and the rally may prolong till 2700 before the bears take over again. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The yen and other safe haven asset classes are flashing warning signs. Indian market volatility is still well below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2650 (up) and 2630 (down) on the S & P and 10200 (up) and 10000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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