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Time Series Analysis with GRETL
This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...
Thursday 15 April 2021
Investment Basics - Fundamentals and Technicals
Sunday 11 April 2021
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 12
Indicator |
Weekly Level /
Change |
Implication for S & P 500 |
Implication for
Nifty* |
S & P 500 |
4129, 2.71% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Nifty |
14835, -0.22% |
Neutral ** |
Neutral |
China Shanghai Index |
3451, -0.97% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Gold |
1745, 1.05% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
WTIC Crude |
59.34, -3.43% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Copper |
4.05, 1.42% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Baltic Dry Index |
2085, 0.63% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Euro |
1.1898, 1.16% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Dollar/Yen |
109.67, -0.94% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Dow Transports |
14918, 1.15% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
High Yield (Bond ETF) |
108.89, 0.23% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
US 10 year Bond Yield |
1.66%, -2.54% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
NYSE Summation Index |
633, 26.43% |
Bullish |
Neutral |
US Vix |
16.69, -3.69% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Skew |
133 |
Neutral |
Neutral |
20 DMA, S and P 500 |
3984, Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
50 DMA, S and P 500 |
3914, Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
200 DMA, S and P 500 |
3578, Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
20 DMA, Nifty |
14763, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
50 DMA, Nifty |
14816, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
200 DMA, Nifty |
12797, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
S & P 500 P/E |
42.04 |
Bearish |
Neutral |
Nifty P/E |
33.53 |
Neutral |
Bearish |
India Vix |
19.79, -1.01% |
Neutral |
Bullish |
Dollar/Rupee |
74.73, 1.86% |
Neutral |
Bearish |
Overall |
S & P 500 |
Nifty |
|
Bullish Indications |
12 |
12 |
|
Bearish Indications |
4 |
5 |
|
Outlook |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
Observation |
The S and P rallied and
the Nifty was little changed last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are about
to begin a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops. |
||
On the Horizon |
US – CPI, Eurozone – CPI,
UK – GDP, China – GDP |
||
*Nifty |
India’s Benchmark
Stock Market Index |
||
Raw Data |
Courtesy Stock
charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE |
||
**Neutral |
Changes less than
0.5% are considered neutral |
The S and P rallied and the Nifty was little changed last
week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
Deflationary busts often begin with inflation scares (the market is calling the
Fed’s bluff) and gold is telegraphing just that. Corporate bonds are
flashing early warning signs. The epic crash signal is alive
and well with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, despite the recent
melt-up and break out of the long-term broadening top, suggesting a major top
is imminent. The moment of reckoning is very near. Technicals are
about to track fundamentals and turn bearish. The market is yet to price in one
of the worst earnings decline periods in stock market history. With extremely
high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Extremely low volatility suggests
complacency and downside ahead.
We
rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we
have rallied over 80% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 12 month
period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to
the 3000 area is emerging on the S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty
in the next few months. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the 3
lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) is set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500
and lower in a year and we stay there till 2030, scary? The markets are very
close to an epic meltdown and the SPX is headed way lower.
The
markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities.
Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear
market with lot lower levels may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever
from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century as we
make a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short
of a lifetime with topping action in the transports, other global indices, and
commodities. High valuations continue.
The
recent global virus epidemic (black swan) has dented global GDP significantly
and will usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend is about
to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a
rebounding dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going
forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5-year deflationary wave has started
in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several
bearish divergences and overstretched valuations.
We
are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long-term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high of late as interest
rates are about to plunge yet again reflecting a major recession. The critical
levels to watch for the week are 4140 (up) and 4115
(down) on the S & P 500 and 14900 (up) and 14750
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. China,
gold, and bonds are on Ichimoku daily sell signals while
the Dollar, S & P 500, and Nifty are on Ichimoku daily
buy signals so something's got to give. High beta / P/E is
about to get torched in April (despite the bullish consensus emerging).
You can check out lastweek’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
Sunday 4 April 2021
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 05
Indicator |
Weekly
Level / Change |
Implication
for S
& P 500 |
Implication
for Nifty* |
S
& P 500 |
4020,
1.14% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Nifty |
14867,
2.48% |
Neutral
** |
Bullish |
China
Shanghai Index |
3484,
1.93% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Gold |
1731,
-0.11% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
WTIC
Crude |
61.30,
0.54% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Copper |
4.02,
-1.30% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Baltic
Dry Index |
2072,
-4.87% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Euro |
1.1764,
-0.27% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Dollar/Yen |
110.71,
0.97% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Dow
Transports |
14748,
0.98% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
High
Yield (Bond ETF) |
108.64,
0.12% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
US
10 year Bond Yield |
1.71%,
2.49% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
NYSE
Summation Index |
501,
-2.33% |
Bearish |
Neutral |
US
Vix |
17.33,
-8.11% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Skew |
136 |
Neutral |
Neutral |
20
DMA, S and P 500 |
3930,
Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
50
DMA, S and P 500 |
3888,
Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
200
DMA, S and P 500 |
3553,
Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
20
DMA, Nifty |
14836,
Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
50
DMA, Nifty |
14748,
Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
200
DMA, Nifty |
12496,
Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
S
& P 500 P/E |
40.93 |
Bearish |
Neutral |
Nifty
P/E |
33.60 |
Neutral |
Bearish |
India
Vix |
19.99,
-3.21% |
Neutral |
Bullish |
Dollar/Rupee |
73.39,
1.07% |
Neutral |
Bearish |
Overall |
S
& P 500 |
Nifty |
|
Bullish
Indications |
9 |
11 |
|
Bearish
Indications |
5 |
5 |
|
Outlook |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
Observation |
The
S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The
markets are about to begin a great
depression style collapse. Watch those stops. |
||
On
the Horizon |
US – PPI, India - RBI rate decision |
||
*Nifty |
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index |
||
Raw
Data |
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE |
||
**Neutral |
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral |
The S and P and the Nifty rallied
last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Deflationary busts often begin
with inflation scares (the market is calling the Fed’s bluff) and gold is
telegraphing just that. Corporate bonds
are flashing early warning signs. The
epic crash signal is alive and well with retail, hedge funds, and speculators
all in, despite the recent melt-up and break out of the long-term broadening
top, suggesting a major top is imminent. The moment of reckoning is very
near. Technicals are about to track
fundamentals and turn bearish. The market is yet to price in one of the worst
earnings decline periods in stock market history. With extremely high
valuations, a crash is on the menu. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency
and downside ahead.
We rallied 46% right after the great
depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over 80% in our most
recent rally of the lows in the last 12 month period. After extreme euphoria
for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3000 area is emerging on the
S and P, and 10000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The FED
is repeating the Japan experiment and the 3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019)
is set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower in a year and we stay
there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown and the
SPX is headed way lower.
The markets are overvalued,
overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic
meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot
lower levels may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is
about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century as we make a major
top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a
lifetime with topping action in the transports, other global indices, and
commodities. High valuations continue.
The recent global virus epidemic
(black swan) has dented global GDP significantly and will usher in a depression
much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to
bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a rebounding dollar.
Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes
like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences and
overstretched valuations.
We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are
still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long-term averages
from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high of late as interest
rates are about to plunge yet again reflecting a major recession. The critical
levels to watch for the week are 4030
(up) and 4010 (down) on the S & P 500 and 14950 (up) and 14800 (down)
on the Nifty. A significant breach
of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. China, Gold, Bonds, and the Nasdaq are
on Ichimoku sell signals while the Dollar, S & P 500, and Nifty are on Ichimoku buy signals so somethings got
to give. High beta / p/e is about to get torched in April. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your
thoughts and feedback.
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Vist Note on Federal Bank - We recently met the senior management of Federal Bank which is one of the old private sector banks with a distribution network of 1252 branches (48% Kerala...6 years ago
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Nifty Bulls bounces ferociously holding 9930,EOD Analysis - FII's bought 4.8 K contract of Index Future worth 262 cores ,9.7 K Long contract were added by FII's and 4.8 K Short contracts were added by FII's. Net Ope...6 years ago
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Midcap & Smallcap Index Corrects, Lets Come Back To Fundamentals Again - Midcap Index had made a high of 18511 on 16th May 2017, fell almost 7% and is currently trading at 17230. Smallcap Index made all time high of 7679 on 11th...6 years ago
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Market outlook for 30/10/2016 - *Nifty closed up 22.75 points (0.26%) at 8638.00* while Future closed at 8667.40, premium of 29.40 points. *Bank Nifty closed up 41.35 points (0.21%) at 19...7 years ago
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Option Open Interest for 28-10-2016 - Inference The index opened flat to positive and after making an initial low around 8581 saw some short covering to close at 8638.00, gain of 22.75 points. ...7 years ago
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Market Review for 23rd August 2016 - *Nifty (8629)* we said ‘technically trend is still intact but there exists selling pressure near 8746 and support around 8600 zones’ the Nifty unfolded as...7 years ago
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ITC To Resume Cigarette Manufacturing - ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings, Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are manufactur...8 years ago
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.