Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
3009, -2.86%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
10383,
1.35%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2980, 0.40%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Gold
|
1785, 1.81%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
38.20,
-3.90%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.66, 1.69%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1738, 11.77%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.1218,
0.37%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
107.23,
0.32%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dow
Transports
|
8806, -3.00%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (Bond ETF)
|
100.96,
-2.04%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
0.64%,
-7.74%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
826, -20.38%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
34.73,
-1.11%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
138
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
3107, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50 DMA,
S and P 500
|
2980, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
3021, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10097,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9577, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10894,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
S
& P 500 P/E
|
21.57
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
P/E
|
26.67
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
India
Vix
|
28.74,
-4.10%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
75.62,
-0.84%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
6
|
10
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
8
|
6
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P fell and the Nifty fell rallied week. Indicators are mixed for the week.
The
markets have begun a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
|
|
On the
Horizon
|
US – Employment
data, UK – GDP, Eurozone – CPI, German employment
data,
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
|
|
The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week.
Indicators are mixed for the coming week, but the recent rally is coming to an
end. After
extreme euphoria for the indices a highly probable selloff to the 2700 area is emerging
on the S and P, and 8500 should arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment
and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is set to repeat across the globe.
SPX 1500 and lower by year end and we stay there till 2050, scary? The markets
are very close to an epic melt down and the SPX is headed way lower. The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch
with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue
resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as
800 on the S and P. QE forever from
the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have
made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a
life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices
and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is
a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global
virus epidemic (black swan) is
likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from
bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under
performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in
key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of
bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year
great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually
result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for
the week are 3020 (up) and 2995
(down) on the S & P 500 and 10450 (up) and 10300 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. Here's the outlook from@JoeFriday_714:
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
3098, 1.86%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
10244,
2.72%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2968, 1.64%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1757, 1.11%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC Crude
|
39.83,
9.85%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
2.61, 0.27%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1527, 65.44%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.1177,
-0.70%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
106.89,
-0.43%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dow
Transports
|
9078, -0.05%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
High
Yield (Bond ETF)
|
103.06,
0.76%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
0.69%,
-2.25%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
1038, 1.74%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
35.12,
-2.69%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
125
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
3091, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2952, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
3019, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
9832, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9433, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10910,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
S
& P 500 P/E
|
22.21
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
P/E
|
25.49
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
India
Vix
|
29.97,
-2.78%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
76.26,
0.28%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
12
|
12
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
2
|
3
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P and the Nifty fell rallied week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The
markets have begun a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
|
|
On the
Horizon
|
US – GDP, China – POBC rate decision
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
|
|
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators have
flipped bullish for the coming week, but the recent rally is coming to an end. After extreme
euphoria for the indices a highly probable selloff to the 2700 area is emerging
on the S and P, and 8500 should arrive on the Nifty in the next two weeks. The
markets are very close to an epic melt down and the SPX is headed to 1800 in the long term. The markets
are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear
market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global
equity markets. The market is looking
like the short of a life time with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High
valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another
massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global
GDP significantly and usher in a depression
much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and
the markets are getting smashed by a strong
dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going
forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5
year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro,
stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over
stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The
critical levels to watch for the week
are 3110 (up) and 3085 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10300 (up) and 10150
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out
last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. Here's the outlook from@JoeFriday_714:
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-
- ES Hour moving towards the hourly cloud which may act as resistance.
- 4 Hour chart shows a possible bullish candle which may give new high's
...
2 years ago
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JUST NIFTY BLOG 10-01-2020
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Bulk Deals FII DII Stats Date # of Deals Total Volume (In Millions)
01-01-1970 0 0.00 Click here to see all Bulk Deals Date Category Buy Amount
(Rs. Cror...
4 years ago
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Vist Note on Federal Bank
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We recently met the senior management of Federal Bank which is one of the
old private sector banks with a distribution network of 1252 branches (48%
Kerala...
6 years ago
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Nifty Bulls bounces ferociously holding 9930,EOD Analysis
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FII's bought 4.8 K contract of Index Future worth 262 cores ,9.7 K Long
contract were added by FII's and 4.8 K Short contracts were added by FII's.
Net Ope...
6 years ago
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Midcap & Smallcap Index Corrects, Lets Come Back To Fundamentals Again
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Midcap Index had made a high of 18511 on 16th May 2017, fell almost 7% and
is currently trading at 17230. Smallcap Index made all time high of 7679 on
11th...
6 years ago
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Market outlook for 30/10/2016
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*Nifty closed up 22.75 points (0.26%) at 8638.00* while Future closed at
8667.40, premium of 29.40 points.
*Bank Nifty closed up 41.35 points (0.21%) at 19...
7 years ago
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Option Open Interest for 28-10-2016
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Inference The index opened flat to positive and after making an initial low
around 8581 saw some short covering to close at 8638.00, gain of 22.75
points. ...
7 years ago
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Market Review for 23rd August 2016
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*Nifty (8629)* we said ‘technically trend is still intact but there exists
selling pressure near 8746 and support around 8600 zones’ the Nifty
unfolded as...
7 years ago
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ITC To Resume Cigarette Manufacturing
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ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings,
Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are
manufactur...
8 years ago
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.