Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed.
About
Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
The Sand P 500 was up and the
Nifty significantly under performed last week. Indicators are bullish for the
S & P but bearish for the Nifty. The Vix is still indicating complacency.
Looking for a pull back soon.
On the Horizon
Australia – Employment data,
China – Loan data, CPI, Euro Zone – German & Euro zone GDP, U.S – Retail
Sales, Consumer Confidence.
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market
Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance,
Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
The US market was up last week while the Nifty sold
off sharply. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week and the recent rally is on
the verge of completion. The markets are likely to correct soon, with most
emerging markets, and commodities already breaking down on a strong dollar and
a hawkish FED. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and
the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P
500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out
last week’s report for
a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S
and P500 and Nifty Indices.
Love your thoughts and feedback.
China’s summer market selloff wasn’t a total rout if you were one of the country’s top-performing hedge funds that gained an average 70 percent as almost 1,300 other funds were wiped out."
What a difference a couple months can make. Shrugging off global-growth fears that dogged the market back in August, Wall Street managed to log one of its best monthly gains in years."
The Sand P 500 was
unchanged and the Nifty significantly under performed last week. Indicators
are bearish. The Vix is still indicating complacency. Looking for a top soon.
The US market was unchanged last week while the Nifty sold off sharply. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week and the recent bounce is on the verge of completion. The markets are likely top out soon, with most emerging markets and commodities already breaking down. There will be more& downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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Cash - 40% Bonds - 20% Fixed deposit - 20% Gold - 5% Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds) Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.