Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Definition of a Recession: The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions in...

Showing posts with label crude oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label crude oil. Show all posts

Tuesday, 6 March 2018

Asset Class of the Week - USD/CAD

This will be part of a series where I feature an asset class which is either bullish or bearish on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. This weeks asset class of the week is the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) which is bullish across daily, weekly and monthly time frames. The Canadian Dollar is weak despite strong oil prices off late. Perhaps the Canadian dollar is signaling a weakening Canadian economy ahead or an upcoming collapse in oil prices due to broad based dollar strength. Data from investing.com:

USD/CAD Daily:
Canadian dollar daily
USD/CAD Weekly:
Canadian dollar weekly
USD/CAD Monthly:

Canadian dollar monthly

Thursday, 16 November 2017

Some Developing Bearish Divergences

Here are some divergences developing that are worth watching:

Crude Oil is close to its recent highs but junk bonds have broken down from recent highs:
Volatility and the Skew have been steadily pushing upwards:

Tuesday, 7 November 2017

A Look at Some Major Markets

Friday, 27 November 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-8

1)The stock market looks more like the crash of 1937 — not the rebound of 2011

"Interestingly, based simply on correlations the current market fits very closely with that of 1937."

2) Ahead Of Black Friday, Enthusiasm For Retail ETFs Wanes - MarketWatch

Benzinga Ahead Of Black Friday, Enthusiasm For Retail ETFs Wanes MarketWatch XRT, the largest dedicated retail ETF, has shed 5 percent over the past week and more than 6 percent over the past month, giving traders and investors good reason to mull..."

3) 3 reasons to be bullish on gold in 2016 - Financial Post
Gold prices recently hit yet another five-year low, but HSBC is calling for a bounce back in 2016"

4) Valuations Are 80% Of The Stock Investing Story - Seeking Alpha

By Rob BennettI often make the claim that it is a terrible mistake for buy-and-holders not to take valuations into consideration when setting their stock allocations, because the peer-reviewed research..."

5) Here's a Great Options Strategy for When You're Bullish on a Stock - TheStreet.com

The covered combination is a great options strategy for moderately bullish investors who are willing to sell their stock or buy more at the right price."

6) Crude Oil Prices As Oversold As 1999 Low - See It Market (blog)

Crude Oil Prices As Oversold As 1999 Low - See It Market (blog) | stock market | Scoop.it

Crude Oil is quite simply the most important commodity on the planet. And crude oil prices are currently as oversold as they were at the 1999 low." 


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.