About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Monday, 9 May 2022

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 09

 

Indicator

Weekly Level / Change

Implication for

S & P 500

Implication for Nifty*

S & P 500

4123, -0.21%

Neutral

Neutral

Nifty

16411, - 4.04%

Neutral **

Bearish

China Shanghai Index

3002, - 1.49%

Bearish

Bearish

Gold

1883, -1.51%

Bearish

Bearish

WTIC Crude

110.61, 5.65%

Bullish

Bullish

Copper

4.25, - 3.69%

Bearish

Bearish

Baltic Dry Index

2718, 13.06%

Bullish

Bullish

Euro

1.0548, 0.07%

Neutral

Neutral

Dollar/Yen

130.57, 0.57%

Bullish

Bullish

Dow Transports

14901, 0.24%

Neutral

Neutral

Corporate Bonds (ETF)

110.81, - 1.59%

Bearish

Bearish

High Yield Bonds (ETF)

96.37, - 1.27%

Bearish

Bearish

US 10-year Bond Yield

3.14%, 7.10%

Bearish

Bearish

NYSE Summation Index

-595, -22%

Bearish

Neutral

US Vix

30.19, -9.61%

Bullish

Bullish

Skew

128

Neutral

Neutral

CNN Fear & Greed

Fear

Bullish

Bullish

20 DMA, S & P 500

4305, Below

Bearish

Neutral

50 DMA, S & P 500

4370, Below

Bearish

Neutral

200 DMA, S & P 500

4489, Below

Bearish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

17206, Below

Neutral

Bearish

50 DMA, Nifty

17061, Below

Neutral

Bearish

200 DMA, Nifty

17235, Below

Neutral

Bearish

S & P 500 P/E

20.84

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

20.89

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

21.25, 9.45%

Neutral

Bearish

Dollar/Rupee

76.95, 0.57%

Neutral

Bearish

 

 

Overall

 

 

S & P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

5

5

Bearish Indications

11

13

Outlook

Bearish

Bearish

Observation

The S and P was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.

The markets are correcting. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

UK – GDP, US – CPI

*Nifty

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


The S and P was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and the Chinese Yuan is telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2000 style recession trade has begun, with the increased possibility of a waterfall decline in risk assets soon. (My views don’t matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). The S&P 500 closed below the 200 DMA recently, after spending a very long time above it, and the 200 DMA has started to decline. Monthly MACD’s on most global markets have gone negative after a long time. This spells trouble ahead and opens up significant downside risk ahead. We could continue the selloff in the markets this week, with a likely short-term bottom near the 3900 mark on the S & P.

We got a bounce that reached the 200 DMA without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in. Markets have been making new highs amid loads of divergences and risky assets are breaking to the downside. Earnings revisions have been average, but any significant upward revisions appear unlikely. Typical late-cycle FED put stuff has led to a taper tantrum following the recent taper announcement from the FED and a likely topTail risk has skyrocketed recently. The market is about to begin an epic correction. Deflationary busts often begin after inflationary scares (the market is calling the Fed’s bluff) and long bonds are telegraphing just that. 

The transports led the most recent rebound and are starting to lead the next decline, The Dollar, tail risk, market breadth, and bond yields, are continuing to flash major warning signs. The epic correction signal is alive and well with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, despite the recent melt-up, suggesting a major top may be in. The moment of reckoning is very near.  Technicals are tracking fundamentals and have recently turned bearish. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over 120% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 2-year period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3800 area is emerging on the S and P, and 15000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the 3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are set to repeat across the globe.

The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get a reality check and get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros.

Tail risk has been very high of late, as yield curves are about to invert yet again reflecting a major upcoming recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 4135 (up) and 4110 (down) on the S & P 500 and 16500 (up) and 16300 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E is getting torched yet again. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own in the upcoming decade. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.