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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Monday 31 January 2022

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 31

 

Indicator

Weekly Level / Change

Implication for

S & P 500

Implication for Nifty*

S & P 500

4432, 0.77%

Bullish

Bullish

Nifty

17102, -2.92%

Neutral **

Bearish

China Shanghai Index

3361, -4.57%

Bearish

Bearish

Gold

1790, -2.28%

Bearish

Bearish

WTIC Crude

87.31, 2.55%

Bullish

Bullish

Copper

4.33, -4.56%

Bearish

Bearish

Baltic Dry Index

1381, -2.40%

Bearish

Bearish

Euro

1.1150, -1.68%

Bearish

Bearish

Dollar/Yen

115.22, 1.35%

Bullish

Bullish

Dow Transports

15049, -1.30%

Bearish

Bearish

Corporate Bonds (ETF)

127.70, -0.93%

Bearish

Bearish

High Yield Bonds (ETF)

105.58, -0.95%

Bearish

Bearish

US 10-year Bond Yield

1.78%, 0.32%

Neutral

Neutral

NYSE Summation Index

-549, -225%

Bearish

Neutral

US Vix

27.66, -4.12%

Bullish

Bullish

Skew

133

Neutral

Neutral

20 DMA, S & P 500

4586, Below

Bearish

Neutral

50 DMA, S & P 500

4636, Below

Bearish

Neutral

200 DMA, S & P 500

4435, Below

Bearish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

17771, Below

Neutral

Bearish

50 DMA, Nifty

17436, Below

Neutral

Bearish

200 DMA, Nifty

16623, Above

Neutral

Bullish

S & P 500 P/E

25.27

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

23.10

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

20.70, 9.57%

Neutral

Bearish

Dollar/Rupee

75.00, 0.83%

Neutral

Bearish

 

 

Overall

 

 

S & P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

4

5

Bearish Indications

13

14

Outlook

Bearish

Bearish

Observation

The S and P rallied and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.

The markets have begun a correction. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

Eurozone German employment data, CPI, ECB rate decision, US - Employment data, UK - BOE rate decision, India – Union budget 2022

*Nifty

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


The S & P and rallied the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Deflation is in the air. Feels like a 2000 style recession trade has begun. The recent rebound may run into resistance. (My views don’t matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). The S&P 500 closed below the 200 DMA for 6 consecutive sessions, after spending a very long time above it. Markets have been making new highs amid loads of divergences and risky assets are breaking to the downside. Earnings revisions have been average, but any upward revisions are already in the price. Typical late-cycle FED put stuff has led to a taper tantrum following the recent taper announcement from the FED and an imminent topTail risk has skyrocketed with the Skew/Vix ratio recently touching double digits. The market is about to begin an epic correction. Deflationary busts often begin after inflationary scares (the market is calling the Fed’s bluff) and long bonds are telegraphing just that. 

The transports, the Dollar, market breadth, corporate bonds, and high yield bonds, are still flashing major warning signs. The epic correction signal is alive and well with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, despite the recent melt-up, suggesting a major top is imminent. The moment of reckoning is very near.  Technicals are tracking fundamentals and have turned bearish. The market is yet to price in one of the worst earnings decline periods in stock market history. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied over 120% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 12-month period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 4300 area is emerging on the S and P, and 14000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the 3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1800 and lower in a year and we stay there till 2030, scary? The markets are very close to an epic meltdown and the SPX is headed way lower.

The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels that may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century as we make a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a lifetime with topping action in the transports, other global indices, and commodities. High valuations continue.

The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) has dented global GDP significantly and will usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5-year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several bearish divergences and overstretched valuations.

We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long-term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high of late, as interest rates are about to plunge yet again reflecting a major recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 4445 (up) and 4420 (down) on the S & P 500 and 17200 (up) and 17050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E is getting torched (despite the bullish consensus emerging). Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own in the upcoming decade. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

 

 

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.