Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 13

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2790, 12.10%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	9112, 12.72%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2797, 1.18%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1753, 3.32%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	23.21, -18.10%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.27, 3.61%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	635, 3.08%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.0936, 1.17%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	108.45, -0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	8237, 12.75%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (Bond)	101.64, 12.26%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.73%, 18.83%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	-735, 29.25%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	41.67, -10.96%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	121	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2532, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2910, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3016, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8727, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10566, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11366, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	20.99	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	20.53	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	49.75, -10.05%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	75.88, -0.47%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	11	12
Bearish Indications	5	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – CPI, China – GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the coming week. The rally in the S & P is almost over and it is going to crash to 1800 soon. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro was a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2800 (up) and 2775 (down) on the S & P 500 and 9200 (up) and 9000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.