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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday 23 February 2020

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 24

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
3338, -1.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
12081, -0.27%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3040, 4.21%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1646, 3.76%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
53.44, 2.06%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.60, -0.19%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
497, 16.94%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.0848, 0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
111.59, 1.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10909, 0.42%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (Bond)
110.08, -0.07%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.47%, -7.24%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
652, -4.60%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
17.08, 24.85%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
135
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
3323, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
3274, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
3042, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
12072, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
12148, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
11682, Above
Neutral
Bullish
S & P 500 P/E
23.77
Bearish
Neutral
Nifty P/E
27.50
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
13.70, 0.62%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
71.88, 0.49%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
8
Bearish Indications
4
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – GDP, Eurozone – German employment data, German GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals february 24


The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the coming week. Despite the big rally markets have only got as far as the breakdown trend lines and are reversing lower. An epic meltdown is just around the corner. Long term, QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are likely making another major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a likely a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent virus epidemic in China is likely to dent global GDP and usher in a recession much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3350 (up) and 3325 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12150 (up) and 12000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



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