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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday 26 January 2020

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 27

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
3296, -1.03%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
12248, -0.84%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2977, -3.85%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1571, 1.24%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
54.20, -9.65%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.68, -6.93%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
557, -26.13%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1025,- 0.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
109.28, -1.11%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
11060, -1.94%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (Bond)
109.30, -0.79%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.69%, -9.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
952, -4.90%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
14.56, 20.33%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
127
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
3274, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
3196, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
3003, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
12217, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
12119, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11645, Above
Neutral
Bullish
S & P 500 P/E
24.80
Bearish
Neutral
Nifty P/E
28.10
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
15.56, 0.97%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
71.33, 0.41%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
5
Bearish Indications
12
13
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, UK – BOE rate decision, US – FOMC rate decision, GDP, India – Union Budget 2020
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals january 27


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Long term, QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are likely making another major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane valuations continue. The breakdown in crude is a likely a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3310 (up) and 3285 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12350 (up) and 12150 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



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