Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 11
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
3093, 0.85%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
11908,
0.15%
|
Neutral
**
|
Neutral
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2964, 0.20%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Gold
|
1460, -3.43%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
57.44,
2.21%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
2.69, 1.32%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1378, -18.80%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.1019,
-1.33%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
109.29,
1.01%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow
Transports
|
11067,
3.06%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High
Yield (Bond)
|
108.20,
-0.04%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
1.95%,
13.49%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
732, 3.51%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
12.07,
-1.87%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
123
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
3031, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50 DMA,
S and P 500
|
2991, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2899, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
11676,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
11344,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
11353,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
15.85,
0.78%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
71.36,
0.85%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
10
|
9
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
4
|
6
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P 500 was up and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish
for the week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
|
|
On the
Horizon
|
UK – GDP, Employment data, CPI, Eurozone
– German GDP, CPI, USA – CPI, PPI, Japan – GDP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
|
|
The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last
week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we are likely making another major
top in global equity markets that will probably fail at resistance near 3065 on
the Sand P 500. The market is looking
like the short of a life time with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities and
insane valuations. A massive drop in the S and P 500 looks imminent. The
trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to
get smashed by a strong dollar.
Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. A 5 year
deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro,
stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg
omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high
off late as the yield curve inverts.
The critical levels to watch for the week
are 3105 (up) and 3080 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12000 (up) and 11800
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out
last week’s report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Thanks for your updates as they are of great use for our equity tips for Indian market.
ReplyDelete