About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Is a Recession Imminent?

Definition of a Recession: The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions in...

Sunday, 16 June 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 17

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2887, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
11823, -0.40%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
2882, 1.92%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1345, 0.31%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
52.52, -2.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.63, -0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1085, -4.66%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1209, -1.09%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
108.56, 0.10%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10305, 1.62%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (Bond)
107.78, 0.16%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.08%, -1.73%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
370, 57.01%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
15.28, -6.26%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
113
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2836, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2874, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2775, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11856, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
11681, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11093, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.90, -6.48%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
69.88, 0.76%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
7
Bearish Indications
3
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – FOMC rate decision, UK – CPI, BOE rate decision, Euro Zone – CPI, Japan – BOJ rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals june 17


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top in global equity markets. The market has established a major secondary top. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2900 (up) and 2875 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11900 (up) and 11750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



No comments:

Post a Comment

Stock Market News

Amazon Deals

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.