Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 04

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2707, 1.57%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10894, 1.05%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2618, 0.63%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1322, 1.85%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	55.26, 2.92%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.77, 1.61%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	645, -28.73%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1450, 0.70%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	109.48, 0.01%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10124, 2.04%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	35.17, 0.81%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.69%, -2.25%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	670, 103.83%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	16.14, -7.35%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	126	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2625, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2609, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2742, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10821, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10788, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10845, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.72, -11.14%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	71.46, 0.74%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	13	15
Bearish Indications	2	2
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – BOE rate decision, US – GDP, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. The market got its oversold bounce of about 350 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix is finally catching up to the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2720 (up) and 2700 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11000 (up) and 10800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.