About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Is a Recession Imminent?

Definition of a Recession: The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions in...

Sunday, 28 October 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 29

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2659, -3.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10030, -2.65%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2599, 1.90%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1236, 0.58%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
67.59, -2.44%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.74, -1.33%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1519, -3.62%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1422, -0.85%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
111.81, -0.61%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9966, -4.53%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
35.09, -0.79%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
3.08%, -3.78%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-715, -43.11%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
24.16, 21.47%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
122
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2802, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2857, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2767, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10457, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
11048, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
10771, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
19.23, -2.80%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
73.09, -0.48%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
3
4
Bearish Indications
13
13
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are bearish.
The markets are indicating a major trend change. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – CPI, US Employment data, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, UK – BOE rate decision, Canada – GDP, Employment data, Japan – BOJ rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals october 29


The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. The markets are oversold again but the medium trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A major top has been established in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff and most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2670 (up) and 2645 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10100 (up) and 9900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


No comments:

Post a Comment

Stock Market News

Amazon Deals

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.