Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 13

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2833, -0.25%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	11430, 0.60%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2795, 2.00%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1219, -0.34%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	67.63, -1.26%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.74, -0.76%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1691, -4.62%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1418, -1.36%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	110.83, -0.38%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	11090, -0.06%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	35.81, -0.17%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.86%, -3.25%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	421, -8.82%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	13.16, 13.06%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	149	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2825, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2785, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2709, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11222, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10956, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10598, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.85, 6.40%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	69.08, 0.86%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	6
Bearish Indications	7	8
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish. The markets are close to making secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – Employment data, Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI, U.K – Employment data, CPI, Retail sales, U.S – Retail sales, Canada – CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. This rally is close to a major secondary top in key asset classes which is going to be followed by a massive selloff. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2845 (up) and 2820 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11500 (up) and 11300 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.