About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 30 July 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 31


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2472, -0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10015, 1.00%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3253, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1275, 1.63%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
49.71, 8.61%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.88, 5.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
942, -2.28%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1752, 0.78%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
110.68, -0.40%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9227, -2.58%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
37.41, 0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.29%, 2.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
751, 3.13%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
10.29, 9.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
140
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2452, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2435, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2322, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9839, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9682, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8937, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.14, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Rupee
64.11, -0.55%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
8

9

Bearish Indications
4
4

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
China – PMI, UK - PMI, Rate decision, Australia – Rate decision, Retail sales, New Zealand – Employment data, Euro Zone – CPI, PMI, German PMI, German employment data, U.S –Oil inventories, pending home sales, ISM, employment data, Canada – employment data, PMI, India – RBI rate decision  






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals july 31

The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Transports and the Yen are flashing warning signs. Momentum is waning. The critical levels to watch are 2485 (up) and 2460 (down) on the S & P and 10100 (up) and 9900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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