About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 2 July 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 3


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2423, -0.61%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
9521, -0.56%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3192, 1.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1242, -1.12%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
46.04, 7.04%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.71, 3.32%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
920, 7.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1424, 2.06%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.47, 1.07%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9564, 1.86%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
37.20, 0.27%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.30%, 7.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
584, 0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
US Vix
11.18, 11.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
130
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2434, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2410, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2294, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9607, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
9483, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8830, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.73, 1.51%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.60, 0.20%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
9

9

Bearish Indications
5
7

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is breaking down from resistance. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
Japan – Tankan survey, China – PMI, Australia – Retail sales, Rate decision,  Euro Zone – German PMI, UK – PMI, GDP, U.S – ISM data, Oil inventories, FOMC minutes, Employment data, Canada – Employment data  






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals july 03

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The re-inflation trade emerged last week. Market internals are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2435 (up) and 2410 (down) on the S & P and 9550 (up) and 9450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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