About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 9 July 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 10


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2425, 0.07%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
9666, 1.52%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3218, 0.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1210, -2.62%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
44.23, -3.93%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.65, -2.36%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
829, -9.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1401, -0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
113.91, 1.28%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9695, 1.37%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.83, -0.54%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.39%, 3.95%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
560, -4.17%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.19, 0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Skew
132
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2432, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2414, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2300, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9603, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9524, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8850, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
10.87, -7.37%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.59, -0.02%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
5

8

Bearish Indications
8
6

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are mixed.
The market is breaking down from resistance. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
China – CPI, UK - Employment data, U.S – Trade balance, Oil inventories, Retail sales, Yellen speech, PPI, CPI, Canada – Rate decision, Poloz speech  






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals july 10

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Commodities are breaking down yet again. Market internals are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2435 (up) and 2415 (down) on the S & P and 9700 (up) and 9600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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