Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 27

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2602, 0.91%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10390, 1.03%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3354, -0.86%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1287, -0.71%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	58.95, 3.95%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.17, 3.33%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1445, 6.17%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1925, 1.12%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	111.51, -0.55%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	9620, 1.45%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	36.99, 0.54%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.34%, -0.59%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	389, 26.20%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	9.65, -15.57%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	131	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2585, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2555, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2447, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10324, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10166, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	9642, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.51, -1.46%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	64.55, -0.55%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	13	14
Bearish Indications	3	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	China – PMI, Euro zone – German employment data, German PMI, CPI, UK – PMI, U.S – New and pending home sales, Consumer confidence, Yellen speech, Oil inventories, GDP, ISM PMI, Canada – Poloz speech, Employment data, GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 made a new high and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2610 (up) and 2590 (down) on the S & P and 10500 (up) and 10300 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Indian Market Volatility Surging Relative to US Market Volatility

Indian market volatility has been surging off late relative to US market volatility much like in November 2016 when the last meaningful correction of 10% occurred. With the market close to record highs could complacency kill the cat yet again? Possible triggers - over valuation (p/e > 25), over bullish technicals, a slowing economy, you name it.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 20

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2579, -0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10284, -0.37%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3383, -1.45%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1297, 1.75%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	56.71, -0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
Copper	3.07, -0.29%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1361, -8.10%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1792, 1.09%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	112.13, -1.23%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	9483, -0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	36.79, 0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.35%, -1.92%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	308, -35.79%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	11.43, 1.24%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	137	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2578, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2547, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2441, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10307, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10133, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	9600, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	13.71, 1.76%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	64.90, -0.74%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	6
Bearish Indications	5	6
Outlook	Bullish	Neutral
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – RBA minutes, Euro zone – ECB minutes, German GDP, German IFO business climate index, Draghi speech, German PMI, UK – GDP, Employment data, U.S – Yellen speech, FOMC minutes, Durable goods, Oil inventories, Existing home sales, Canada – Retail sales
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2590 (up) and 2570 (down) on the S & P and 10350 (up) and 10200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.