The Ghost of Irving Fisher Returns?

So many market cliches have been used to describe markets over the years. These include Goldlilocks, the Fed Put, irrational exuberance, don't fight the FED, don't fight the tape, etc. The aptest phrase for today's markets is the famous quote from economist Irving Fisher in October 1929 right before the Great Depression of the 1930s set in:

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"

                            Source: Market Cycles Chart - New Trader U

Of course, central banks have a plethora of unconventional monetary policy tools at their disposal to avert major crises these days, but valuations are quite stretched.

Investment Basics - Fundamentals and Technicals

 This video gives you a basic understanding of fundamental and technical analysis in investing:

Interesting Market Views

 Here is a midweek take on markets from the pros I follow on Twitter:

✔️ #SPX S&P 500 repeats patterns from 1929, during the Great Depression https://t.co/6pe9ks71Mo

— The Tradable (@TheTradable) September 29, 2020

Remember problem child Evergrande? https://t.co/evKBwpkX9f

— The Market Ear (@themarketear) September 30, 2020

Credit protection - another move higher https://t.co/mXhKkzIuSQ

— The Market Ear (@themarketear) September 30, 2020

S&P 500 Bollinger Band Percent - no buy signal using Bollinger Bands on the daily chart - 3355 - 3365 key for Bulls to take out, for more up. A move under 3322 for an hour is a huge negative for this move up and suggests a failure. End of Quarter today. pic.twitter.com/f0vDEG063m

— David Larew (@ThinkTankCharts) September 30, 2020

China composite PMI vs Copper prices pic.twitter.com/tdHxnmd56o

— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) September 30, 2020

Transports testing top of the 5-year trading range. Its run out of gas three times near $200. Will it be different this time? https://t.co/U3R7eurYVh$IYT $SPX @MarketSmith @InvestorsBusinessDaily #IBDinfluencer #IBDpartner pic.twitter.com/yCQx40xIBM

— Chris Kimble (@KimbleCharting) September 24, 2020

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 03

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	3271, 1.73%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11074, -1.08%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3310, 3.54%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1974, 4.03%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	40.44, -2.06%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.86, -1.09%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1348, 2.35%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1779, 1.06%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	105.83, -0.29%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	9995, 2.72%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (Bond ETF)	106.10, 0.99%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.53%, -10.24%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	728, -0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
US Vix	24.46, -5.34%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	142	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	3216, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3138, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3049, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10953, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10393, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10857, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	28.12	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	30.20	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	24.19, -1.40%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	74.92, 0.21%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	13
Bearish Indications	4	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P was up and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Employment data, UK – BOE rate decision, Japan – GDP, India – RBI rate decision.
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the coming week. The recent rally is on borrowed time as we head into one of the worst earnings decline period in stock market history with extremely high valuations amid a lot of bearish divergences. We rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied 46% in our most recent rally of the lows, coincidence? After extreme euphoria for the indices a highly probable selloff to the 2700 area is emerging on the S and P, and 9000 should arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year end and we stay there till 2050, scary? The markets are very close to an epic melt down and the SPX is headed way lower. The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3285 (up) and 3260 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11150 (up) and 11000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. Here's the outlook from@JoeFriday_714:

#SPX Weekly - can still close that Gap... and if so, what happens after will be key. A test of that Green Support Zone seems likely...The potential expanding wedge and channel patterns are shown by the yellow TL's. Grey dotted line running through the Support Zone is the median pic.twitter.com/2j9FuuH8nk

— JoeFriday714 (@joefriday_714) August 2, 2020

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 27

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	3216, -0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	11194, 2.68%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3197, -0.54%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1900, 4.96%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	41.34, 1.37%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.89, -0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1388, -18.83%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1656, 2.00%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	106.14, -0.81%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	9730, -1.72%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (Bond ETF)	105.06, 1.32%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.59%, -5.82%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	728, 8.50%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	25.84, 0.62%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	139	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	3175, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3104, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3041, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10773, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10177, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10859, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	27.64	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	29.35	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	24.53, 1.56%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	74.76, -0.18%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	8
Bearish Indications	6	7
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mildly bullish for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US - FOMC rate decision, GDP, Eurozone - German employment data, German GDP
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are marginally bullish for the coming week. The recent rally is on borrowed time as we head into one of the worst earnings decline period in stock market history with extremely high valuations. We rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we have rallied 46% in our most recent rally of the lows, coincidence? After extreme euphoria for the indices a highly probable selloff to the 2700 area is emerging on the S and P, and 9000 should arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year end and we stay there till 2050, scary? The markets are very close to an epic melt down and the SPX is headed way lower. The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3225 (up) and 3200 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11250 (up) and 11100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. Here's the outlook from@TriggerTrades:

Levels 📊 Notes 📝 Trends 📈$SPY $SPX #ES_F

Last update saw the exact📍proposed price projection & levels 📊 play out🔥

Weekly formed a bearish Shooting Star⭐️pattern👉This week can confirm more downside📉

Expecting a counter trend wave 2 🌊 before a strong impulsion down pic.twitter.com/k8EDVGwOjY

— 𝕋ℝ𝕀𝔾𝔾𝔼ℝ 𝕋ℝ𝔸𝔻𝔼𝕊 🎯 (@TriggerTrades) July 26, 2020