Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 29

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2940, 1.20%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11755, 0.02%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3086, -5.64%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1288, 0.74%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	62.84, -1.81%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.89, -1.06%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	869, 10.00%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1154, -0.84%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	111.58, -0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10881, -0.97%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	36.25, 0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.50%, -2.33%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	971, -7.30%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	12.73, 5.29%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	126	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2896, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2836, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2771, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11655, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11298, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	11008, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	21.72, -4.48%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	69.85, 0.69%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	8
Bearish Indications	7	7
Outlook	Neutral	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – FOMC rate decision, Employment data, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, UK – BOE rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top in global equity markets. The market has rallied 600 points from the December lows but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2950 (up) and 2930 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11850 (up) and 11650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 22

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2905, -0.08%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	11753, 0.94%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3271, 2.58%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1278, -0.98%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	64.07, 0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
Copper	2.92, -0.78%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	790, 8.82%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1246, -0.50%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	111.92, -0.10%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	10988, 0.70%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	36.14, -0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.56%, 0.15%	Neutral	Neutral
Nyse Summation Index	1047, -1.65%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	12.09, 0.67%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	124	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2866, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2816, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2766, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11604, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	11203, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10983, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	22.73, 8.27%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	69.39, 0.32%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	7
Bearish Indications	5	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mildly bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – GDP, Japan – BOJ rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mildly bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to a major secondary top in global equity markets. The market got its oversold bounce of about 550 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2920 (up) and 2890 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11850 (up) and 11650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.