About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday 30 June 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 01

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2942, -0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
11789, 0.55%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2979, -0.77%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1413, 1.17%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
58.20, 1.34%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.72, 0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1340, 8.15%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1370, 0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
107.91, 0.56%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10462, 1.06%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (Bond)
108.96, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.01%, -2.53%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
592, 7.39%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
15.08, -2.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
118
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2890, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2881, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2777, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11843, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
11705, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11099, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.95, 2.34%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
68.96, -0.90%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
11
11
Bearish Indications
1
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – Employment data, Euro Zone – German employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals july 01


The S and P 500 was relatively unchanged and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top in global equity markets. The market is establishing a major secondary top with non-conformation from the transports. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2955 (up) and 2930 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11850 (up) and 11700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Sunday 23 June 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 24

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2951, 2.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11724, -0.84%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3002, 4.16%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1403, 4.71%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
57.59, 9.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.70, 2.66%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1194, 10.05%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1368, 1.42%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
107.32, -1.17%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10353, 0.46%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (Bond)
109.17, 1.28%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.06%, -1.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
551, 49.13%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
15.40, 0.79%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
119
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2856, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2878, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2776, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11870, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
11687, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11096, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.61, 5.15%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.58, -0.29%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
13
11
Bearish Indications
2
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – GDP, UK – GDP, Euro Zone – CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals june 24


The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top in global equity markets. The market is establishing a major secondary top with non-conformation from the transports. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2960 (up) and 2940 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11800 (up) and 11650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.