About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday 26 April 2020

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 27

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2837, -1.32%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
9154, -1.21%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2809, -1.06%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1746, -2.64%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
17.19, -5.91%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.34, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
665, -11.45%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.0821, -0.52%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
107.54, -0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8092, -1.72%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (Bond)
96.62, -3.51%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
0.61%, -5.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-277, 31.08%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
35.93, -5.82%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
127
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2708, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2808, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
3008, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8768, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10043, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
11247, Below
Neutral
Bearish
S & P 500 P/E
20.61
Bearish
Neutral
Nifty P/E
20.34
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
39.18, -8.16%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
76.27, -0.37%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
4
Bearish Indications
10
12
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.
The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – BOJ rate decision, US – FOMC rate decision, GDP, Eurozone – ECB rate decision, CPI, German employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals april 27


The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the coming week. The S & P is failing again and it is headed to 1800. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2850 (up) and 2825 (down) on the S & P 500 and 9250 (up) and 9050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



Sunday 19 April 2020

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 20

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2875, 3.04%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9267, 1.70%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2839, 1.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1695, -2.64%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
18.12, -19.70%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.34, 2.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
751, 18.27%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.0876, -0.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
107.53, -0.87%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8234, -0.04%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (Bond)
100.13, -1.49%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
0.64%, -11.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-402, 45.29%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
38.15, -8.45%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
126
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2613, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2863, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
3013, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8576, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10322, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
11312, Below
Neutral
Bearish
S & P 500 P/E
20.61
Bearish
Neutral
Nifty P/E
20.85
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
42.59, -7.60%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
76.55, 0.88%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
9
Bearish Indications
7
9
Outlook
Bullish
Neutral
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for the week.
The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
UK – Employment data, CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals april 20


The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for the coming week. The rally in the S & P is on borrowed time and it is going to crash to 1800 soon. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2885 (up) and 2860 (down) on the S & P 500 and 9350 (up) and 9200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.