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Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Showing posts with label nifty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nifty. Show all posts

Tuesday, 1 July 2025

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 30

 

Asset Class

Weekly Level / Change

Implications for S&P 500

Implications for Nifty*

S&P 500

6173, 3.44%

Bullish

Bullish

Nifty

25638, 2.09%

Neutral **

Bullish

China Shanghai Index

3424, 1.91%

Bullish

Bullish

Gold

3302, -2.54%

Bearish

Bearish

WTIC Crude

65.52, -13.54%

Bearish

Bearish

Copper

5.10, 5.81%

Bullish

Bullish

CRB Index

300, -4.09%

Bearish

Bearish

Baltic Dry Index

1521, -9.95%

Bearish

Bearish

Euro

1.1720, 1.91%

Bullish

Bullish

Dollar/Yen

144.67, -1.05%

Bearish

Bearish

Dow Transports

15495, 4.94%

Bullish

Neutral

Corporate Bonds (ETF)

109.01, 0.80%

Bullish

Bullish

High-Yield Bonds (ETF)

96.94, 0.74%

Bullish

Bullish

US 10-year Bond Yield

4.27%, -2.33%

Bullish

Bullish

NYSE Summation Index

625, 11%

Bullish

Neutral

US Vix

16.32, -20.85%

Bullish

Neutral

S&P 500 Skew

143

Bearish

Neutral

CNN Fear & Greed Index

Greed

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty MMI Index

Greed

Neutral

Bearish

20 DMA, S&P 500

6015, Above

Bullish

Neutral

50 DMA, S&P 500

5809, Above

Bullish

Neutral

200 DMA, S&P 500

5830, Above

Bullish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

24978, Above

Neutral

Bullish

50 DMA, Nifty

24710, Above

Neutral

Bullish

200 DMA, Nifty

24092, Above

Neutral

Bullish

S&P 500 P/E

29.41

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

23.04

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

12.39, -9.40%

Neutral

Bullish

Dollar/Rupee

85.46, -1.30%

Neutral

Bullish

 

 

Overall

 

 

S&P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

13

13

Bearish Indications

8

7

 

Outlook

Bullish

Bullish

Observation

 

The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.

Markets are topping again. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

US – Employment data, UK – GDP, Eurozone - CPI

*Nifty

 

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime. The sentiment is greedy. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance near prior highs. The macro-environment was rapidly deteriorating even before the recent tariff issue. The recent massive breakdown in transports (recent rebound is quite shallow) is quite ominous. This, combined with oil's free fall (despite the recent rebound), has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected significantly from recent highs and will likely end its outperformance soon.

The past week saw US equity markets rally. Most emerging markets rose as interest rates fell. Transports rose. The Baltic dry index fell. The dollar fell. Commodities fell. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and the sentiment is greedy. Volatility (S&P 500) fell hard.

A currency crisis should resume at any moment and push risky assets to new lows. Deflation is in the air, and bonds are telegraphing just that despite intermittent spikes in yields. It feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is tracking closely the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter; kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rally is a likely catalyst.

The S&P 500 is correcting from recent highs. We have bounced from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in, and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside as earnings growth falters. The Fed has aggressively tightened into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields are flashing significant warning signs.

Global yield curves have inverted a second time after the recent steepening, reflecting the arrival of a significant economic slowdownFollowing the recent steepening of the yield curve after the first inversion, this second inversion is complete, and currently, steepening, which is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets will underperform going forward under such conditions. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6185 (up) and 6160 (down) on the S&P 500 and 25700 (up) and 25550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently correcting). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold as this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

 

 

Monday, 23 June 2025

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 23

 

Asset Class

Weekly Level / Change

Implications for S&P 500

Implications for Nifty*

S&P 500

5968, -0.15%

Neutral

Neutral

Nifty

25112, 1.59%

Neutral **

Bullish

China Shanghai Index

3360, -0.51%

Bearish

Bearish

Gold

3386, -2.27%

Bearish

Bearish

WTIC Crude

74.93, 3.04%

Bullish

Bullish

Copper

4.83, 0.99%

Bullish

Bullish

CRB Index

313, 0.85%

Bullish

Bullish

Baltic Dry Index

1689, -14.18%

Bearish

Bearish

Euro

1.1523, -0.13%

Neutral

Neutral

Dollar/Yen

146.10, 1.06%

Bullish

Bullish

Dow Transports

14765, 0.54%

Bullish

Neutral

Corporate Bonds (ETF)

108.14, 0.32%

Neutral

Neutral

High-Yield Bonds (ETF)

96.23, 0.55%

Bullish

Bullish

US 10-year Bond Yield

4.38%, -0.67%

Bullish

Bullish

NYSE Summation Index

566, -10%

Bearish

Neutral

US Vix

20.62, -0.96%

Bullish

Neutral

S&P 500 Skew

149

Bearish

Neutral

CNN Fear & Greed Index

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Nifty MMI Index

Fear

Neutral

Bullish

20 DMA, S&P 500

5958, Above

Bullish

Neutral

50 DMA, S&P 500

5737, Above

Bullish

Neutral

200 DMA, S&P 500

5814, Above

Bullish

Neutral

20 DMA, Nifty

24864, Above

Neutral

Bullish

50 DMA, Nifty

24472, Above

Neutral

Bullish

200 DMA, Nifty

24091, Above

Neutral

Bullish

S&P 500 P/E

28.39

Bearish

Neutral

Nifty P/E

22.57

Neutral

Bearish

India Vix

13.67, -9.33%

Neutral

Bullish

Dollar/Rupee

86.58, 0.55%

Neutral

Bearish

 

 

Overall

 

 

S&P 500

 

 

Nifty

 

Bullish Indications

10

12

Bearish Indications

6

5

 

Outlook

Bullish

Bullish

Observation

 

The S&P was unchanged, and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.

Markets are topping again. Watch those stops.

On the Horizon

US – GDP

*Nifty

 

India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index

Raw Data

Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in

**Neutral

Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 


The S&P was unchanged, and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime. The sentiment is greedy. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance near prior highs. The macro-environment was rapidly deteriorating even before the recent tariff issue. The recent massive breakdown in transports (recent rebound is quite shallow) is quite ominous. This, combined with oil's free fall (despite the recent rebound), has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected significantly from recent highs and will likely end its outperformance soon.

The past week saw US equity markets remain little changed. Most emerging markets fell even as interest rates fell. Transports rose. The Baltic dry index fell. The dollar was unchanged. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and the sentiment is neutral. Volatility (S&P 500) fell.

A currency crisis should resume at any moment and push risky assets to new lows. Deflation is in the air, and bonds are telegraphing just that despite intermittent spikes in yields. It feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is tracking closely the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter; kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rally is a likely catalyst.

The S&P 500 is correcting from recent highs. We have bounced from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in, and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside as earnings growth falters. The Fed has aggressively tightened into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields are flashing significant warning signs.

Global yield curves have inverted a second time after the recent steepening, reflecting the arrival of a significant economic slowdownFollowing the recent steepening of the yield curve after the first inversion, this second inversion is complete, and currently, steepening, which is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets will underperform going forward under such conditions. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 5980 (up) and 5955 (down) on the S&P 500 and 25200 (up) and 25050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently correcting). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold as this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

 

 

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.