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Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 26 November 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 27

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2602, 0.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10390, 1.03%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3354, -0.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1287, -0.71%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
58.95, 3.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.17, 3.33%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1445, 6.17%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1925, 1.12%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.51, -0.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9620, 1.45%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.99, 0.54%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.34%, -0.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
389, 26.20%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
9.65, -15.57%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
131
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2585, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2555, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2447, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10324, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10166, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9642, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.51, -1.46%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.55, -0.55%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
13

14
Bearish Indications
3
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China – PMI, Euro zone – German employment data, German PMI, CPI, UK – PMI, U.S – New and pending home sales, Consumer confidence, Yellen speech, Oil inventories, GDP, ISM PMI, Canada – Poloz speech, Employment data, GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals november 27


The S and P 500 made a new high and the Nifty was up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2610 (up) and 2590 (down) on the S & P and 10500 (up) and 10300 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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