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Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 19 November 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 20

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2579, -0.13%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10284, -0.37%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3383, -1.45%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1297, 1.75%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
56.71, -0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
3.07, -0.29%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1361, -8.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1792, 1.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.13, -1.23%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9483, -0.19%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
36.79, 0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.35%, -1.92%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
308, -35.79%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.43, 1.24%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
137
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2578, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2547, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2441, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10307, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10133, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9600, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.71, 1.76%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.90, -0.74%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6

6
Bearish Indications
5
6
Outlook
Bullish
Neutral
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – RBA minutes, Euro zone – ECB minutes, German GDP, German IFO business climate index, Draghi speech, German PMI, UK – GDP, Employment data, U.S – Yellen speech, FOMC minutes, Durable goods, Oil inventories, Existing home sales, Canada – Retail sales
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals november 20

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2590 (up) and 2570 (down) on the S & P and 10350 (up) and 10200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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