About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Showing posts with label india vix. Show all posts
Showing posts with label india vix. Show all posts

Friday, 29 April 2022

Jaws GAP - India Vix vs US Vix

There is quite a bit of underperformance in Indian market volatility compared to US market volatility since the COVID-19 crash as indicated by the jaws gap below. This should resolve soon with an upcoming spike in Indian market volatility and a significant fall in the Nifty Index.


 

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Thursday, 23 November 2017

Indian Market Volatility Surging Relative to US Market Volatility

Indian market volatility has been surging off late relative to US market volatility much like in November 2016 when the last meaningful correction of 10% occurred. With the market close to record highs could complacency kill the cat yet again? Possible triggers - over valuation (p/e > 25), over bullish technicals, a slowing economy, you name it.

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Wednesday, 8 July 2015

Why I am Bearish on the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index?

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Thursday, 14 May 2015

Rounding Top Pattern in the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index Suggests Lower levels for the Nifty in the Months Ahead

The weekly chart of the Indian stock market Nifty index shows a rounding top formation that targets 6000 on the Index. This coincides with a rounding bottom that is forming on the weekly chart in the India Vix which is a measure of Indian stock market volatility suggesting an upsurge in volatility in the upcoming months. The pattern suggests a level of 35 for the India #Vix up over 50% from current levels. This implies significant downside for the Nifty in the upcoming months.
Incidentally the India Vix has traded below the US Vix recently and a catch up to the upside is likely as the India Vix tends to be significantly higher than the US Vix.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.