About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Tuesday, 13 October 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from global financial markets-2

1) Stock Market Crash October 2015? 9 of the 16 Largest Crashes in History Have ... - Charisma News

There is just something about this time of year that seems to be conducive to financial panic."

2) Street eyes stock market recovery, bank earnings - CNBC

Traders will look for further confirmation Tuesday that the stock market has found its footing, ahead of the first major bank earnings."

3) The Stock Market Is Poised for a Huge Selloff -- Don't Be Fooled by the Recent ... - TheStreet.com

The stock market's recent rally was in the context of a bear market and offers investors the perfect exit before the coming collapse.. S&P 500 Index(^GSPC)"

4) Are We Too Obsessed About Deflation? - Bloomberg

Madhur Jha, senior global economist at Standard Chartered, discusses the impact of global inflation and deflation. She speaks to Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde on "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)"



5) Deflation in Wholesale Price Index to decline:India Ratings - Moneycontrol.com

A reversal in the base effect will lead to lower deflation in the wholesale price index (WPI) and a rise in the consumer price index (CPI) in September says India Ratings"



6) QE Causes Deflation, Not Inflation

RT @DA_Stockman: QE Causes Deflation, Not Inflationhttp://t.co/Fytko0GlfO

Here are some more interesting market news and views.


Sunday, 11 October 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 12


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2015, 3.26%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8190, 3.05%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3183, 4.27%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1156, 1.58%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
49.50, 8.39%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.42, 3.18%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
809, -9.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1358, 1.32%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
120.22, 0.27%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8253, 4.82%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.10%, 5.53%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-75, 83.42%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
17.08, -18.43%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1957, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1993, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2062, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7940, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8097, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8378, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
18.92, -1.61%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.71,-0.78%
Neutral
Bullish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
11
13

Bearish Indications
3
3

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish. The Vix is back in complacency mode. We are entering a weak period for risk assets globally and declines are likely in both indices in the upcoming months following this bounce.


On the Horizon
 China loan data, China, US, UK and New Zealand CPI, US Fed Beige Book, Australia employment data, Euro zone ZEW sentiment survey, US retail sales and consumer confidence.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The markets rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week and this bounce is on the verge of completion. The S and P 500 and several global indices are completing massive bear flags which should resolve to the downside. The markets are expected to encounter resistance at higher levels on any bounces, with the 2020-2030 zone on the S and P 500 acting as major resistance. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback. Hottest Deals On Refurbished Apple Products | JemJem

Tuesday, 6 October 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from global financial markets-1


1) George Soros Bets $1.3 Billion on Stock Market Crash

In today's video, Christopher Greene of AMTV reports on George Soros and his massive put on the stock market.

 2) The stock market's crashing again. What should I do with my super? - The Guardian

There are ways to ensure your nest egg is not hit too hard in volatile times, and one is to be aware of how your super is tracking and how you can improve on it "





The unemployment rate is better than it's been in 67% of all months since 1948.With 64 straight months of employment gains, investors need to wake up the possibility that change is afoot.When employment..."

As fears go, deflation in the Eurozone is greatly overdone, in my opinion. Deflation is the mirror image of inflation and simply means that prices are falling, rather than rising.



5) 5 Technologies That Could Drive Solar Energy Growth for Decades -- The Motley Fool

The Motley Fool is a multimedia financial-services company that provides financial solutions for investors through various stock, investing, and personal finance products.

6) Top 5 Reasons To Fear A Stock Market Collapse

BullishMoney | With poor results from the September 2015 Jobs Report, investors are fundamentally concerned about a potential stock market crash in the Dow ..."

Here are some more interesting market news and views.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.