About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Showing posts with label earnings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label earnings. Show all posts

Wednesday, 14 December 2016

Interesting Charts from the World of Financial Markets

Tuesday, 7 June 2016

Chart of the Day - Growth in the S & P 500, P/E Ratio, Earnings

The chart of the day is courtesy the SRSrocco report and is a comparison of the increase in the S and P 500 and its P/E ratio since 2011 relative to its change in earnings.  A pretty big divergence is seen with earnings growth lagging far behind. Either the earnings growth has to catch up or prices have to come down in line with the sub par earnings growth observed.

Growth-of-SP500-Earings-Chart

Tuesday, 3 November 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-5

1) As China's Stock Market Crashed, These Hedge Funds Rose 70% - Bloomberg

China’s summer market selloff wasn’t a total rout if you were one of the country’s top-performing hedge funds that gained an average 70 percent as almost 1,300 other funds were wiped out."

2) Europe in Deflation: Got (cheap) Milk? - The Market Oracle

Europe in Deflation: Got (cheap) Milk? :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website"

3) S&P 500 Earnings On Track For First Fall Since 2009 - Investor's Business Daily

S&P 500 companies appear set for their first year-over-year earnings decline since 2009, led by energy woes and a sluggish global economy."






4) Wall Street's October stock-market performance was scary good - MarketWatch

What a difference a couple months can make. Shrugging off global-growth fears that dogged the market back in August, Wall Street managed to log one of its best monthly gains in years."

5)The global stock market crash, explained

Why investors in Europe, China, and the United States all got spooked on Monday."

6) Memo to Bulls: Stock Market Crash Looming in 2016 - Profit Confidential

The bulls are starting break open the champagne, but the chance of a stock market crash in 2016 is growing."





Tuesday, 13 October 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from global financial markets-2

1) Stock Market Crash October 2015? 9 of the 16 Largest Crashes in History Have ... - Charisma News

There is just something about this time of year that seems to be conducive to financial panic."

2) Street eyes stock market recovery, bank earnings - CNBC

Traders will look for further confirmation Tuesday that the stock market has found its footing, ahead of the first major bank earnings."

3) The Stock Market Is Poised for a Huge Selloff -- Don't Be Fooled by the Recent ... - TheStreet.com

The stock market's recent rally was in the context of a bear market and offers investors the perfect exit before the coming collapse.. S&P 500 Index(^GSPC)"

4) Are We Too Obsessed About Deflation? - Bloomberg

Madhur Jha, senior global economist at Standard Chartered, discusses the impact of global inflation and deflation. She speaks to Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde on "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)"



5) Deflation in Wholesale Price Index to decline:India Ratings - Moneycontrol.com

A reversal in the base effect will lead to lower deflation in the wholesale price index (WPI) and a rise in the consumer price index (CPI) in September says India Ratings"



6) QE Causes Deflation, Not Inflation

RT @DA_Stockman: QE Causes Deflation, Not Inflationhttp://t.co/Fytko0GlfO

Here are some more interesting market news and views.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.