About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Showing posts with label deflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label deflation. Show all posts

Wednesday, 31 August 2016

Chart of the Week - BOJ Stock Market Casino

The chart of the week is courtesy Doug Wakefield via Safe Haven and shows that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is a top 10 share holder in about 90% of the Nikkei 225. This after the Nikkei has been down nearly 60% since its highs in 1989. After multiple QE's that have failed to stimulate the economy and get rid of the deflationary negative interest rate scenario in Japan, this latest move by the BOJ has failure written all over it. Another down move in the Nikkei from a strengthening Yen could prove to be problematic for the BOJ going forward.

BOJ is Top 10 Shareholder in about 90% of Nikkei 225

Tuesday, 12 July 2016

Chart of the Week - Historical Inflation View

The chart of the week is courtesy MarketWatch and shows inflation levels over time. We have been in a dis-inflationary phase for over 20 years now and could soon enter a deflationary spiral as record levels of quantitative easing (QE) have failed to spark an upthrust in inflation:

inflation

Thursday, 3 December 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-9

1) SP-500 Weekly Rounded Top Pattern - Fearless Forecasters

SP-500 Weekly Rounded Top Pattern - posted in Fearless Forecasters:"
Rajveer Rawlin's insight:
Rounding top nearing completion





2) Keeping An Open Mind About The U.S. Stock Market

Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on December 2, 2015.I have kept an open mind over the past few months as to whether the July-September decline in US equities was the first leg of a..."

3) Watch these 3 charts when the Fed makes a rate move

The Federal Reserve rate increase could come as early as December and there are still lots of factors that haven’t been priced into the markets, argue analysts at Société Générale."

4) This chart warns that stock market investors should be on high alert

The long-term downtrend in the high-yield, or “junk,” corporate bond market, is suggesting that liquidity is drying up, which could be warning that the stock market is in danger."

5) 3 Numbers: Eurozone deflation risk receding, but only slightly

The consensus points to a 0.3% rise in Eurozone CPI, but there's enough downside macro risk to make it likely more stimulus will be unveiled in tomorrow’s ECB announcement."

6) The GDP In Charts: Deflation Helps Indian Economy Grow 7.4% But Nominal Growth at 6%

India's GDP growth in the Sep 2015 quarter came in at 7.4%, which would be awesome, except that it's the "real" GDP, which is the number that you can see ("nominal" GDP) minus inflation."




Tuesday, 17 November 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-7

1) Why terrorism has a limited impact on markets - The Economist (blog)

One-off attacks merely shift economic activity from one period to another; long-term campaigns are another matter"

2)Japan's Stock Market Shrugs Off Recession Worries - Bloomberg

If Japan’s economy is in trouble, you wouldn’t know it from the stock market."

3) How the Stench of Deflation Fouls the Market Air - Investorplace.com

Deciding how the economy will react to an expected rate hike is difficult. Here's how we can invest while waiting for the Fed's details"





4) Investing For Income: Combining Preferred Shares With Bond ETFs - Seeking Alpha

Preferred shares can carry call risk or may have no final maturity.Investors can plan for the long-term yield from the shares, accounting for default risk, and avoid shares that trade at premiums to c..."



5) Putting Einstein to work for your investing future - MarketWatch

No matter what your age, or how much or little money you have, you can put one of Albert Einstein's insights to work for you. Compound interest, which was famously cited by Einstein as one of the wonders of the world."

6) Jim Cramer: Why the Fed Is the Stock Market's Enemy Right Now - TheStreet.com

With heighten speculation the Fed will raise rates in December, Cramer weighs in on why the Fed is the market's adversary."





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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.