The Indian Market in 2008 Vs The Market Today

On the 10 year anniversary of one of the greatest market crashes in India's recent history here is an interesting comparison:

Year	Nifty P/E	USD/INR	GDP	NPA's (Trillion)
2008	>  25	< 45	> 9	< 1
2018	> 27	> 63	< 7	> 6

sources: Craytheon.com, RBI

It was a runaway rally in 2008 much like it is now. We had a market peak at a P/E ratio in excess of 25 as is the case now. The major difference being the Rupee has depreciated significantly now and our GDP is much lower. Also the banking system is saddled with almost 10 times more NPA's than was the case in 2008. So if you are tempted to think "Is this time different?" Think again!

FED Balance Sheet Vs Emerging Market Volatility Vs Stock Market Capitalization to GDP

The assets on the FED balance sheet stands at well over 4.4 trillion dollars, this has coincided with record low emerging market volatility and highly inflated levels of stock market capitalization to GDP globally. With the FED beginning a slow tapering process, some sort of mean reversal is on the cards which could result in an uptick in emerging market volatility and a pull back of some sort in global stock market indices:

Chart of the Week - China Credit Boom

The chart of the week is courtesy Bloomberg and shows the maniacal credit boom in china. The credit to GDP ratio in China has breached historical levels and has entered into dangerous territory eclipsing levels seen before recent busts in 2008 and 2015. Another hard landing looks certain:

Chart of the Week - Global GDP

The chart of the week is courtesy of Bloomberg and shows historic and projected levels for Global GDP. Global GDP has remained below levels observed before the great recession of 2008-2009 and is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future:

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-9

1) SP-500 Weekly Rounded Top Pattern - Fearless Forecasters

From www.traders-talk.com -December 2, 8:52 AM

SP-500 Weekly Rounded Top Pattern - posted in Fearless Forecasters:"

Rajveer Rawlin's insight:

Rounding top nearing completion

2) Keeping An Open Mind About The U.S. Stock Market

From seekingalpha.com - December 2, 6:19 PM

Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on December 2, 2015.I have kept an open mind over the past few months as to whether the July-September decline in US equities was the first leg of a..."

3) Watch these 3 charts when the Fed makes a rate move

From www.marketwatch.com - December 2, 6:19 PM

The Federal Reserve rate increase could come as early as December and there are still lots of factors that haven’t been priced into the markets, argue analysts at Société Générale."

4) This chart warns that stock market investors should be on high alert

From www.marketwatch.com - December 2, 6:20 PM

The long-term downtrend in the high-yield, or “junk,” corporate bond market, is suggesting that liquidity is drying up, which could be warning that the stock market is in danger."

5) 3 Numbers: Eurozone deflation risk receding, but only slightly

From www.tradingfloor.com - December 2, 6:18 PM

The consensus points to a 0.3% rise in Eurozone CPI, but there's enough downside macro risk to make it likely more stimulus will be unveiled in tomorrow’s ECB announcement."

6) The GDP In Charts: Deflation Helps Indian Economy Grow 7.4% But Nominal Growth at 6%

From capitalmind.in - December 2, 6:18 PM

India's GDP growth in the Sep 2015 quarter came in at 7.4%, which would be awesome, except that it's the "real" GDP, which is the number that you can see ("nominal" GDP) minus inflation."