This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key diagnostic tests are also covered:
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Time Series Analysis with GRETL
This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...
Tuesday 3 August 2021
Time Series Analysis with GRETL
Sunday 1 August 2021
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 02
Indicator |
Weekly
Level / Change |
Implication
for S
& P 500 |
Implication
for Nifty* |
S
& P 500 |
4395,
-0.37% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Nifty |
15763,
-0.59% |
Neutral
** |
Bearish |
China
Shanghai Index |
3397,
-4.31% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Gold |
1817,
0.84% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
WTIC
Crude |
73.72,
2.29% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Copper |
4.48,
1.63% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Baltic
Dry Index |
3292,
2.91% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Euro |
1.1871,
0.85% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Dollar/Yen |
109.72,
-0.74% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Dow
Transports |
14461,
-2.00% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
High
Yield (Bond ETF) |
109.77,
-0.10% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
US
10 year Bond Yield |
1.23%,
-4.44% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
NYSE
Summation Index |
131,
-18.42% |
Bearish |
Neutral |
US
Vix |
18.24,
6.05% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Skew |
154 |
Bearish |
Bearish |
20
DMA, S & P 500 |
4366,
Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
50
DMA, S & P 500 |
4284,
Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
200
DMA, S & P 500 |
3938,
Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
20
DMA, Nifty |
15788,
Below |
Neutral |
Bearish |
50
DMA, Nifty |
15697,
Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
200
DMA, Nifty |
14390,
Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
S
& P 500 P/E |
34.28 |
Bearish |
Neutral |
Nifty
P/E |
27.01 |
Neutral |
Bearish |
India
Vix |
12.80,
8.84% |
Neutral |
Bearish |
Dollar/Rupee |
74.34,
-0.11% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Overall |
S
& P 500 |
Nifty |
|
Bullish
Indications |
9 |
7 |
|
Bearish
Indications |
7 |
9 |
|
Outlook |
Bullish |
Bearish |
|
Observation |
The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed
for the week. The
markets are beginning a correction. Watch those stops. |
||
On
the Horizon |
UK – BOE rate decision, USA – Employment
data, India - RBI rate decision |
||
*Nifty |
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index |
||
Raw
Data |
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE |
||
**Neutral |
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral |
The S and P and the
Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. Deflation is in the
air. Markets are failing at new highs amid loads of divergences and a big move
beckons in a seasonally weak period for risk assets. Earnings revisions have been
very good but it is already in the price. Typical late-cycle FED put
stuff is leading to a taper tantrum and an imminent
top. Tail risk has skyrocketed with the Skew/Vix ratio
recently touching double digits. The market is about to begin an epic
correction. Deflationary busts often begin after inflationary scares (the
market is calling the Fed’s bluff) and long bonds are telegraphing just
that. Transports, the Dollar, market breadth, and the skew are
flashing major warning signs. The epic correction signal is alive
and well with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, despite the recent
melt-up, suggesting a major top is imminent. The moment of
reckoning is very near. Technicals are about to track fundamentals
and turn bearish. The market is yet to price in one of the worst earnings
decline periods in stock market history. With extremely high valuations, a
crash is on the menu. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency and
downside ahead.
We
rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we
have rallied over 100% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 12
month period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff
to the 3900 area is emerging on the S and P, and 13000 should arrive on the
Nifty in the next few months. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the
3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1800
and lower in a year and we stay there till 2030, scary? The markets are very
close to an epic meltdown and the SPX is headed way lower.
The
markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities.
Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear
market with lot lower levels that may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century as we make a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking
like the short of a lifetime with topping action in the transports, other
global indices, and commodities. High valuations continue.
The
recent global virus epidemic (black swan) has dented global GDP significantly
and will usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend is about
to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a
rebounding dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going
forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5-year deflationary wave has started
in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several
bearish divergences and overstretched valuations.
We are
entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over
3 standard deviations above their long-term averages from which corrections
usually result. Tail risk has been very high of late, as interest rates are
about to plunge yet again reflecting a major recession. The critical levels
to watch for the week are 4410 (up) and 4380 (down) on the S & P
500 and 15850 (up) and 15700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of
the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. High beta / P/E is about to get torched soon
(despite the bullish consensus emerging). You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts
and feedback.
Sunday 25 July 2021
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 26
Indicator |
Weekly
Level / Change |
Implication
for S
& P 500 |
Implication
for Nifty* |
S
& P 500 |
4412,
1.96% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Nifty |
15856,
-0.42% |
Neutral
** |
Neutral |
China
Shanghai Index |
3550,
0.31% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Gold |
1802,-0.72% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
WTIC
Crude |
72.17,
0.50% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Copper |
4.46,
2.83% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Baltic
Dry Index |
3199,
5.26% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Euro |
1.1773,
-0.27% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Dollar/Yen |
110.56,
0.44% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Dow
Transports |
14756,
1.82% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
High
Yield (Bond ETF) |
109.88,
0.28% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
US
10 year Bond Yield |
1.29%,
-1.08% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
NYSE
Summation Index |
160,
-56.02% |
Bearish |
Neutral |
US
Vix |
17.20,
-6.78% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Skew |
159 |
Bearish |
Bearish |
20
DMA, S & P 500 |
4338,
Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
50
DMA, S & P 500 |
4257,
Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
200
DMA, S & P 500 |
3915,
Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
20
DMA, Nifty |
15788,
Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
50
DMA, Nifty |
15613,
Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
200
DMA, Nifty |
14287,
Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
S
& P 500 P/E |
34.41 |
Bearish |
Neutral |
Nifty
P/E |
28.28 |
Neutral |
Bearish |
India
Vix |
11.76,
0.49% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Dollar/Rupee |
74.43,
-0.24% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Overall |
S
& P 500 |
Nifty |
|
Bullish
Indications |
10 |
10 |
|
Bearish
Indications |
4 |
3 |
|
Outlook |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
Observation |
The S and P rallied and the Nifty fell last week.
Indicators are bullish for the week. The
markets are beginning a correction. Watch those stops. |
||
On
the Horizon |
Eurozone – German employment data, German GDP, CPI, USA - FOMC rate
decision, GDP |
||
*Nifty |
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index |
||
Raw
Data |
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE |
||
**Neutral |
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral |
The S and P rallied
and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Deflation is in the
air. Another new high amid loads of divergences. Earnings revisions have been
very good but it is already in the price. Typical late-cycle FED put
stuff is leading to a taper tantrum and an imminent
top. Tail risk has skyrocketed with the Skew/Vix ratio
recently touching double digits. The market is about to begin an epic
correction. Deflationary busts often begin after inflationary scares (the
market is calling the Fed’s bluff) and long bonds are telegraphing just that. Transports,
the Dollar, market breadth, and the skew are flashing major
warning signs. The epic correction signal is alive and well with retail,
hedge funds, and speculators all in, despite the recent melt-up, suggesting a major
top is imminent. The moment of reckoning is very
near. Technicals are about to track fundamentals and turn bearish.
The market is yet to price in one of the worst earnings decline periods in
stock market history. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu.
Extremely low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.
We
rallied 46% right after the great depressions (1930’s) first collapse and we
have rallied over 100% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 12
month period. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff
to the 3900 area is emerging on the S and P, and 13000 should arrive on the
Nifty in the next few months. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the
3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1800
and lower in a year and we stay there till 2030, scary? The markets are very
close to an epic meltdown and the SPX is headed way lower.
The
markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities.
Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear
market with lot lower levels long-term that may be as low as 800 on the S and P. QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century as we make a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking
like the short of a lifetime with topping action in the transports, other
global indices, and commodities. High valuations continue.
The
recent global virus epidemic (black swan), has dented global GDP significantly
and will usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend is about
to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a
rebounding dollar. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going
forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5-year deflationary wave has started
in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks, and commodities amidst several
bearish divergences and overstretched valuations.
We are
entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over
3 standard deviations above their long-term averages from which corrections
usually result. Tail risk has been very high of late, as interest rates are
about to plunge yet again reflecting a major recession. The critical levels to
watch for the week are 4425 (up) and 4400 (down) on the S & P 500
and 15950 (up) and 15800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the
above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. High
beta / P/E is about to get torched soon (despite the bullish
consensus emerging). You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts
and feedback.
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Tata Elxsi Q4 net profit, revenue decline QoQ; firm declares dividend of Rs 70 per share - [image: Tata Elxsi Q4 net profit, revenue decline QoQ; firm declares dividend of Rs 70 per share] The net profit was down 4.6 percent quarter-on-quarter co...3 weeks ago
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Rupee falls 29 paise to close at 82.68 against US dollar - During the day, the rupee touched a high of 82.45 and a low of 82.68 against the greenback. On Friday, the rupee had settled at 82.39 against the dollar.11 months ago
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ES Hourly cloud and 4 Hour chart - - ES Hour moving towards the hourly cloud which may act as resistance. - 4 Hour chart shows a possible bullish candle which may give new high's ...2 years ago
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JUST NIFTY BLOG 10-01-2020 - Bulk Deals FII DII Stats Date # of Deals Total Volume (In Millions) 01-01-1970 0 0.00 Click here to see all Bulk Deals Date Category Buy Amount (Rs. Cror...4 years ago
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Vist Note on Federal Bank - We recently met the senior management of Federal Bank which is one of the old private sector banks with a distribution network of 1252 branches (48% Kerala...6 years ago
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Nifty Bulls bounces ferociously holding 9930,EOD Analysis - FII's bought 4.8 K contract of Index Future worth 262 cores ,9.7 K Long contract were added by FII's and 4.8 K Short contracts were added by FII's. Net Ope...6 years ago
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Midcap & Smallcap Index Corrects, Lets Come Back To Fundamentals Again - Midcap Index had made a high of 18511 on 16th May 2017, fell almost 7% and is currently trading at 17230. Smallcap Index made all time high of 7679 on 11th...6 years ago
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Market outlook for 30/10/2016 - *Nifty closed up 22.75 points (0.26%) at 8638.00* while Future closed at 8667.40, premium of 29.40 points. *Bank Nifty closed up 41.35 points (0.21%) at 19...7 years ago
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Option Open Interest for 28-10-2016 - Inference The index opened flat to positive and after making an initial low around 8581 saw some short covering to close at 8638.00, gain of 22.75 points. ...7 years ago
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Market Review for 23rd August 2016 - *Nifty (8629)* we said ‘technically trend is still intact but there exists selling pressure near 8746 and support around 8600 zones’ the Nifty unfolded as...7 years ago
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ITC To Resume Cigarette Manufacturing - ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings, Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are manufactur...8 years ago
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.