About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Tuesday 10 November 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-6

1)What You Missed In The Stock Market Last Week - Motley Fool

TrueCar and Devon Energy were both winners this week after third-quarter results, but FireEye had a much rougher week for investors."

2) As 'Fedexodus' Looms, Big Stock-Market Gains 'May Be Behind Us' - Wall Street Journal (blog)

At first, the market seemed so, well, mature. The market didn't tank on Friday, in the face of that strong jobs report and rising odds that the Fed would hike rates. The market's maturity is getting tested on Monday."


3) Former Gordon Brown Advisor Damian McBride Says ‘Stock Up On Water, Market Crash Is Coming’

A former adviser to Gordon Brown has urged people to stock up on canned goods and bottled water as stock markets around the world slide.
Damian McBride appeared to suggest that the stock market di..."





4) Is BRIC Investing Losing Its Appeal? - Bloomberg


Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab's senior vice president and chief global investment strategist, discusses corporate earnings and the outlook for global stocks with Bloomberg's Mike Regan and Betty Liu on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)..."

5)12 investing books to read if you want to get rich - Business Insider

If you want to get rich, the single most..."

6) Central banks rescuing the stock markets? - Forex Crunch

This morning on the Tip TV Finance Show Clem Chambers, Founder of ADVFN, joined Nick Batsford to discuss how central banks are influencing the stock market, as"




Sunday 8 November 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 9

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2099, 0.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7954,- 1.38%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3590, 6.13%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1089, -4.62%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
44.52, -4.03%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.24, -3.15%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
631, -12.48%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.0743, -2.40%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
123.17, 2.07%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
8241, 1.39%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.33%, 8.46%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
503, 21.99%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
14.33, -4.91%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2060, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1997, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2063, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8149, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7988, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8375, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
19.47, 8.91%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.06, 1.03%
Neutral
Bearish





Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
5

Bearish Indications
6
12

Outlook
Bullish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was up and the Nifty significantly under performed last week. Indicators are bullish for the S & P but bearish for the Nifty. The Vix is still indicating complacency. Looking for a pull back soon.


On the Horizon
Australia – Employment data, China – Loan data, CPI, Euro Zone – German & Euro zone GDP, U.S – Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




The US market was up last week while the Nifty sold off sharply. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week and the recent rally is on the verge of completion. The markets are likely to correct soon, with most emerging markets, and commodities already breaking down on a strong dollar and a hawkish FED. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.