About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday 1 September 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 02

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2927, 2.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11023, 1.79%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2886, 2.61%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1529, -0.55%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
55.16, 1.83%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.56, 0.71%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
2378, 9.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.0991, -1.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
106.29, 0.83%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10127, 3.98%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (Bond)
108.82, 0.74%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.50%, -1.44%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
312, 8.77%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
18.98, -4.48%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
115
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2893, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2945, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2806, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10977, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
11342, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
11210, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
16.28, -6.14%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
71.45, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
13
12
Bearish Indications
3
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – Employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals september 02


The S and P 500 and the Nifty bounced last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have likely made another major top in global equity markets and are failing at resistance. The market has established a major top with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities and a 200 point drop in the S and P 500 looks imminent. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2940 (up) and 2915 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11100 (up) and 10950 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Sunday 25 August 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 26

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2847, -1.44%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10829, -1.98%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2897, 2.61%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1537, 0.86%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
53.95, -1.68%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.54, -2.35%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
2168, 3.83%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1142, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
105.41, -0.91%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9740, -2.28%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (Bond)
108.04, 0.52%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.53%, -2.61%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
287, 9.18%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
19.87, 7.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
113
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2914, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2947, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2803, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11014, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
11414, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
11197, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
17.35, 4.20%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
71.51, 0.50%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7
5
Bearish Indications
8
11
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – GDP, Eurozone – CPI, German GDP, German employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals august 26


The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have likely made another major top in global equity markets and are failing at resistance. The market has established a major top with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities and a 200 point drop in the S and P 500 looks imminent. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2860 (up) and 2835 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10900 (up) and 10750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.