Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 01

 

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500		Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	4170, 0.87%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	18065, 2.50%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3323, 0.67%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1999, 0.43%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	76.63, -1.59%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	3.90, -2.18%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	268, -0.98%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1576, 4.79%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1015, 0.25%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	136.29, 1.60%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	14022, -2.72%	Bearish	Bearish
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	109.93, 0.85%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield Bonds (ETF)	92.49, 0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	3.43%, -3.78%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	218, -28%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	15.78, -5.90%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	138	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S & P 500	4121, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S & P 500	4034, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S & P 500	3965, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	17624, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	17508, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	17647, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	22.29	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	21.13	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	10.95, -5.87%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	81.73, -0.37%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	12
Bearish Indications	7	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are back at resistance. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – CPI, ECB rate decision, US – FOMC rate decision, Employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

The S&P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. We are back above resistance near the 50 and 200 DMAs on the S&P 500, as we transition from an inflationary regime to a deflationary collapse. The Nifty is above resistance near the 20 WMA close to 17700. The current market is tracking closely the 1973/2008 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rebound from major support is a likely catalyst.

The past week saw US equity markets rally. Most emerging markets rose, following a fall in interest rates. Transports diverged lower. The Baltic dry index rose. The dollar was unchanged. Commodities fell. Valuations are quite expensive, market breadth fell, and the sentiment is now bullish. Fear has cooled off again, despite possible contagion risk from bank failures. The recent steepening of the yield curve, within an inverted context, with rates falling, is a precursor to the next recession, and most risky assets will underperform going forward under such conditions.

The recent currency crisis should resume and push risky assets to new lows across the board. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and bonds are telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board.

The S&P 500 is encountering resistance near its recent highs. Monthly MACDs on most global markets are still negative. This spells trouble and opens significant downside risk ahead. We have got bounces from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside across the board, as downward earnings revisions are underway.

The Fed is aggressively tightening into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The market has corrected significantly, and more is left on the downside. The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields are continuing to flash major warning signs despite recent countertrend moves.

The epic correction signal occurred with retail, hedge funds, and speculators all in, in January 2022, suggesting a major top is in. The moment of reckoning is here. With extremely high valuations, a crash is on the menu. Low volatility suggests complacency and downside ahead.

We rallied 46% right after the Great Depression (the 1930s) first collapse and we rallied over 120% in our most recent rally of the COVID-19 lows. After extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3300 area is emerging on the S&P 500, and 15000 should arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The Nifty is catching up with other assets on the downside.

The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and markets risk getting a reality check and being smashed by contagion risk from an economic slowdown and a strong dollar. Global yield curves have inverted significantly reflecting a major upcoming recession. Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on challenging macros.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 4185 (up) and 4155 (down) on the S&P 500 and 18150 (up) and 18000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched yet again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold (though technically overbought in the short term) is increasingly looking like the asset class to own in the upcoming decade. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.