Indicator |
Weekly Level / Change |
Implication for S & P 500 |
Implication for Nifty* |
S & P 500 |
4130, 4.26% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Nifty |
17158, 2.62% |
Neutral ** |
Bullish |
China Shanghai Index |
3253, -1.30% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Gold |
1782, 3.15% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
WTIC Crude |
98.30, 3.57% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Copper |
3.59, 8.15% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Baltic Dry Index |
1895, - 11.70% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Euro |
1.0226, 0.14% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Dollar/Yen |
133.21, - 2.10% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
Dow Transports |
14609, 5.78% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Corporate Bonds (ETF) |
114.61, 0.86% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
High Yield Bonds (ETF) |
96.38, 1.67% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
US 10-year Bond Yield |
2.66%, - 4.56% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
NYSE Summation Index |
157, 199% |
Bullish |
Neutral |
US Vix |
21.33, - 7.38% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
Skew |
122 |
Neutral |
Neutral |
CNN Fear & Greed |
Fear |
Bullish |
Bullish |
20 DMA, S & P 500 |
3912, Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
50 DMA, S & P 500 |
3922, Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
200 DMA, S & P 500 |
4346, Below |
Bearish |
Neutral |
20 DMA, Nifty |
16326, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
50 DMA, Nifty |
16139, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
200 DMA, Nifty |
17025, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
S & P 500 P/E |
20.87 |
Bearish |
Neutral |
Nifty P/E |
20.73 |
Neutral |
Bearish |
India Vix |
16.55, - 0.60% |
Neutral |
Bullish |
Dollar/Rupee |
79.20, - 0.80% |
Neutral |
Bullish |
Overall |
S & P 500 |
Nifty |
|
Bullish Indications |
13 |
16 |
|
Bearish Indications |
5 |
4 |
|
Outlook |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
Observation |
The S and P and the Nifty
rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are pushing
resistance. Watch those stops. |
||
On the Horizon |
US –
Employment data, UK – BOE rate decision, India –
RBI rate decision, |
||
*Nifty |
India’s Benchmark Stock
Market Index |
||
Raw Data |
Courtesy Stock charts,
investing.com, multpl.com, NSE |
||
**Neutral |
Changes less than 0.5% are
considered neutral |
The S and P
500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for
the week. We are pushing into resistance near the 4250 zone. The upcoming
currency crisis should push risky assets to new lows
across the board. Deflation is in the air despite the recent
inflationary spike and the Chinese Yuan, Euro, government bonds, and
commodities are telegraphing just that. Feels like the 2000-style
recession trade will return, with a decline in risk assets
across the board. (My views don’t matter, kindly pay attention to the levels).
The S&P 500 is well below the 200 DMA, after spending a very long time above it, and its 200 DMA is declining. Monthly MACDs on most global markets have gone negative after a long time. This spells trouble and opens up significant downside risk ahead. We have got bounces without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in and the regime is changing from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets are breaking to the downside across the board. Downward earnings revisions are likely soon.
The Fed is aggressively
tightening into a recession. Tail risk while moderating is
still high. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary
scares. The market has corrected significantly and more is left on the
downside.
The Dollar,
market breadth, and bond yields are continuing to
flash major warning signs despite the recent counter-trend move.
The epic correction signal occurred with retail, hedge funds, and speculators
all in, in the recent melt-up in January, suggesting a major top is
in. The moment of reckoning is here. Technicals are tracking
fundamentals and have recently turned bearish. With extremely high valuations,
a crash is on the menu. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency and
downside ahead.
We rallied 46%
right after the Great Depression (the 1930s) first collapse and we have rallied
over 120% in our most recent rally of the lows in the last 2-year period. After
extreme euphoria for the indices, a highly probable selloff to the 3500 area
is emerging on the S and P, and 14000 should
arrive on the Nifty in the next few months. The FED is
repeating the Japan experiment and the 3 lost decades in Japan (1989-2019) are
set to repeat across the globe.
The trend has
changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting a reality check and
getting smashed by rising rates and a strong dollar.
Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. Yield curves are about to invert yet again
reflecting a major upcoming recession.
The critical
levels to watch for the week are 4145 (up) and 4115 (down) on
the S & P 500 and 17250 (up) and 17050 (down) on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the
above markets. High beta / P/E will likely prove to be a sell on every
rise. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own
in the upcoming decade despite the recent selloff. You can check
out last week’s report for a
comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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