Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 3

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2363, 0.80%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	9174, 0.72%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3223, -1.44%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1251, 0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	50.60, 5.48%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.65, 0.82%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1297, 4.60%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.066, -1.33%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	111.38, 0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	9117, 2.10%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	36.93, 1.07%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.40%, -0.17%	Neutral	Neutral
Nyse Summation Index	325, 46%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	12.37, -4.55%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	138	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2364, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2339, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2215, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9060, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	8860, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	8544, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.42, 3.69%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	64.79, -0.89%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	12
Bearish Indications	3	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is beginning a break down. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – Rate decision, England – BOE financial stability report, U.S – ISM, FOMC minutes, Employment data, Canada – Employment data Canada – GDP, Euro Zone – Draghi speech, UK – Carney speech
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Market internals, transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2370 (up) and 2350 (down) on the S & P and 9250 (up) and 9100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.