About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Saturday, 1 April 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 3

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2363, 0.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9174, 0.72%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3223, -1.44%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1251, 0.22%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
50.60, 5.48%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.65, 0.82%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1297, 4.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.066, -1.33%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
111.38, 0.13%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9117, 2.10%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.93, 1.07%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.40%, -0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
325, 46%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.37, -4.55%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
138
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2364, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2339, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2215, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9060, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8860, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8544, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.42, 3.69%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.79, -0.89%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10

12
Bearish Indications
3
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is beginning a break down. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Rate decision, England – BOE financial stability report,
U.S – ISM, FOMC minutes, Employment data, Canada – Employment data Canada – GDP, Euro Zone – Draghi speech, UK – Carney speech
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals april 3

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Market internals, transports and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2370 (up) and 2350 (down) on the S & P and 9250 (up) and 9100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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Cash - 40%
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Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.