About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 23 April 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 24

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2349, 0.85%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9119, -0.34%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3173, -3.14%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1289, 0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
49.62, -6.69%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.54, -1.28%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1195, -7.79%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.073, 1.04%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
109.16, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9134, 2.92%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.87, 0.46%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.24%, 0.22%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
489, 6.96%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
14.63, 8.33%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
148
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2352, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2357, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2234, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9159, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
9017, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8611, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.42, -1.34%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.70, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6

7
Bearish Indications
7
6
Outlook
Bearish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are tilting towards the bearish side.
The market is beginning a break down. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia - CPI, RBA governor speech, Japan - Rate decision, CPI, Euro Zone – French elections, German CPI, Euro zone CPI, ECB rate decision, U.K – GDP, Switzerland – SNB Jordan speech,  Canada – GDP, U.S – Durable goods, Consumer confidence, Personal consumption data, GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals april 25



The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are entering panic mode. Market internals, the yen and commodities are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2360 (up) and 2340 (down) on the S & P and 9200 (up) and 9050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.