About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 8 January 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 9

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2277, 1.70%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8244, 0.71%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3154, 1.63%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1173, 1.88%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
53.99, 0.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.55, 1.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
963, 0.21%
Neutral
Neutral
Euro
1.053, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
116.97, -0.29%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9104, 0.67%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.74, 0.80%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.34%, -1.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
577, 24.75%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.32, -19.37%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2261, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2205, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2141, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8121, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8202, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8274, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
14.91, -3.57%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.15, 0.28%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
13

13
Bearish Indications
0
1
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The Trump bounce is largely over. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – Loan data, CPI, U.S – Retail sales, U. Mich. Consumer confidence
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

Stock Market Signals January 9 2017


The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are at bullish extremes for the upcoming week. The FED rate hike is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Transports are beginning to under perform. Bond yields have made a dramatic surge up and risky segments of the market like emerging markets are breaking down on broad dollar strength. The critical levels to watch are 2290 (up) and 2260 (down) on the S & P and 8300 (up) and 8150 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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