About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Saturday, 28 January 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 30

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2295, 1.03%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8641, 3.50%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3159, 1.15%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1188, -1.37%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
53.17, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.69, 2.46%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
827, -10.59%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.070, -0.03%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
115.08, 0.44%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9444, 2.38%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
37.00, 0.68%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.48%, 0.57%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
682, 8.73%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
10.58, -8.32%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2272, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2245, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2156, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8355, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8201, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8327, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
16.00, 1.36%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
68.09, -0.00%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10

10
Bearish Indications
3
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The Trump bounce is largely over. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China - PMI, Japan – Rate decision, New Zealand - Employment data, Euro zone – CPI, German employment data, CPI, UK – Rate decision, Canada – GDP, U.S – Personal consumption data, ISM data, Consumer confidence, FOMC rate decision, Employment data, India - Union budget 2017
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals january 30

The S and P 500 the Nifty moved up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Possible FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Bond yields are surging back up. The critical levels to watch are 2310 (up) and 2290 (down) on the S & P and 8700 (up) and 8600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

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Cash - 40%
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.