About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 1 January 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 2

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2239, -1.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
8186, 2.51%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3104, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1152, 1.60%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
53.72, 1.32%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.51, 1.07%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
961, 0.0%
Neutral
Neutral
Euro
1.053, 0.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
116.97, -0.29%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9044, -1.60%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.45, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.45%, -3.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
463, -0.93%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
14.04, 22.73%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2250, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2195, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2136, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8111, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8249, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8256, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
15.47, 2.23%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.96, 0.18%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7

6
Bearish Indications
5
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The Trump bounce is largely over. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Canada – Employment data, Euro zone – German Employment data, CPI, Euro zone CPI, U.S – Employment data, ISM data.
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals january 2

The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty bounced back last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The FED rate hike is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. Transports are beginning to under perform. Bond yields have made a dramatic surge up and risky segments of the market like emerging markets are breaking down on broad dollar strength. The critical levels to watch are 2250 (up) and 2230 (down) on the S & P and 8250 (up) and 8100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. Happy new year everyone.



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