About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 26

Indicator Weekly Level / Change Implication for S & P 500 Implication for Nifty* ...

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Sunday, 4 December 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 5

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2192, -0.97%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
8087, -0.34%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3244, -0.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1178, -0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
51.68, 12.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.62, -1.61%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1198, 1.44%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.067, 0.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
113.50, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9049, 0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
36.01, 0.27%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.39%, 0.76%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
110, 227.85%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
14.12, 14.42%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2178, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2156, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2111, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8196, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8484, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8163, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
17.93, 1.82%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
68.02, -0.73%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7

4
Bearish Indications
5
9
Outlook
Bulllish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
The Trump bounce is largely over and downside is about to resume. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – New loan data, CPI, Australia – Rate decision, GDP, U.S –ISM non manufacturing data, U. Mich. consumer confidence,  Canada –Rate decision,
Euro zone – Italy referendum, ECB rate decision, UK – Supreme court hears Brexit appeal
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

rising wedge s & p 500



The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. A FED rate hike is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. A big move is coming very soon in the markets and will most likely be down. Bond yields have made a dramatic surge up and risky segments of the market like emerging markets are breaking down on broad dollar strength. The critical levels to watch are 2200 (up) and 2180 (down) on the S & P and 8150 (up) and 8000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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