About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 26

Indicator Weekly Level / Change Implication for S & P 500 Implication for Nifty* ...

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Sunday, 11 December 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 12

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2260, 3.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8262, 2.16%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3233, -0.34%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1162, -1.35%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
51.50, -0.35%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.65, 0.86%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1090, -9.02%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.056, -1.06%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
115.31, 1.56%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9407, 3.96%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.46, 1.25%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.46%, 3.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
345, 213.81%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.75, -16.78%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2201, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2164, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2118, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8119, Abve
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8422, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8189, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.07, -15.98%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.46, -0.84%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
11

10
Bearish Indications
4
6
Outlook
Bulllish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The Trump bounce has extended into way over bought territory. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Employment data, Euro zone – ZEW survey, U.S – Retail sales, FOMC rate decision, CPI, UK – CPI, Rate decision, Switzerland – Rate decsion
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

s and p 500 rising wedge


The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. A FED rate hike is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacent mode. The big frenzy up has begun with a positive Dow Theory conformation. Bond yields have made a dramatic surge up and risky segments of the market like emerging markets are under performing on broad dollar strength. The critical levels to watch are 2270 (up) and 2250 (down) on the S & P and 8300 (up) and 8200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.