About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 4 September 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 5

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2180, 0.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8810, 2.77%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3067, 0.10%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1327, 0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
44.44, -6.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.08, -0.31%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
720, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Euro
1.119, -0.07%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
104.01, 2.16%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
7947, 1.56%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.64, 0.79%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.60%, -2.39%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
788, -10.32%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.98, -12.23%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2180, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2153, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2056, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8666, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8537, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7911, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.94, -4.64%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.57, -0.88%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8

12
Bearish Indications
3
1
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are at the top of their recent trading ranges. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China – New loan data, CPI, Australia – Rate decision, GDP, U.S –ISM non manufacturing data, Canada – Employment data, Rate decision,
Euro zone – ECB rate decision, Switzerland - GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency despite the market making nominal new highs and momentum, breadth and sentiment indicators are showing divergences.  The markets are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 which could start any moment now. The critical levels to watch are 2190 (up) and 2170 (down) on the S & P and 8900 (up) and 8700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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