About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 18 September 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 19

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2139, 0.53%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8780, -0.98%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3003, -2.47%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1310, -1.82%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
43.62, -4.93%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.16, 3.23%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
800, -0.50%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.116, -0.67%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
102.27, -0.38%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
7770, -1.56%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.14, -0.03%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.70%, 1.73%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
549, -27.59%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
15.37, -12.17%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2166, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2168, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2059, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8739, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8635, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7952, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.58, 10.20%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.08, 0.21%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
3

6
Bearish Indications
10
9
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 bounced and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
Markets are breaking down from the top of their recent trading ranges. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – Rate decision, New Zealand – Rate decision, Canada – CPI,
US – FOMC rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock twits charts 1

The S and P 500 rebounded slightly and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. Market momentum and breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment indicators are still highly complacent and a big breakdown is likely underway.  The markets are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016. The critical levels to watch are 2150 (up) and 2130 (down) on the S & P and 8900 (up) and 8700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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