About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 25 September 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 26

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2165, 1.19%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8832, 0.59%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3034, 1.03%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1342, 2.40%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
44.48, 1.97%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.20, 1.90%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
941, 17.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.123, 0.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
101.00, -1.21%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
7937, 2.14%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.51, 1.02%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.62%, -5.06%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
572, 4.15%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.29, -20.04%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2161, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2169, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2061, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8780, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8676, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7974, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.25, -9.14%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.70, -0.56%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
13

17
Bearish Indications
2
1
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China – PMI, Japan – CPI, Canada - GDP, Euro zone – German employment data, CPI, Euro Zone CPI, U.S. - Consumer confidence, Durable goods
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

StockTwits Charts



The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week on the FED. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Market momentum and breadth have been showing divergences for months now and sentiment indicators are still highly complacent and a big breakdown will likely start soon.  The markets are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016. The critical levels to watch are 2175 (up) and 2150 (down) on the S & P and 8900 (up) and 8700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison.  Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.