About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 3 July 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 4

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2103, 3.22%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8328, 2.96%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2933, 2.74%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1345, 1.96%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
49.28, 3.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.22, 4.89%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
677, 11.17%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.110, -0.22%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
102.58, 0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
7558, 3.24%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.53, 1.76%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.46%, -7.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
815, 5.59%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
14.77, -42.66%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2082, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2077, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2023, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8196, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8024, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7788, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.74, -15.51%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.19, -1.04%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
14

16
Bearish Indications
0
0
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are overly bullish.
Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Rate decision, England – BOE financial stability report,
U.S – ISM, Employment data, Canada – Employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral



The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are at bullish extremes for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2110 (up) and 2090 (down) on the S & P and 8400 (up) and 8250 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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