About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 10 July 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 11

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2130, 1.28%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8323, -0.06%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
2988, 1.90%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1367, 1.67%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
45.12, -8.44%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.12, -4.39%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
703, 3.84%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.105, -0.80%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
100.45, -2.03%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
7683, 1.66%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.07, 1.52%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.37%, -6.18%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
915, 12.16%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
13.20, -10.63%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2080, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2078, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2026, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8217, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8059, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7799, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.08, -4.16%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.13, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
12

12
Bearish Indications
4
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China – CPI, GDP, Australia – Employment data, England – BOE rate decision,
U.S – Import price index, CPI, Retail sales, U. Mich. Consumer confidence, Canada – Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral





The Sand P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency.  The Yen, gold and treasuries are indicating a flight to safety. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2140 (up) and 2120 (down) on the S & P and 8400 (up) and 8250 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and
P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Cash - 40%
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.