About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

The Case for a Global Recession in 2017 and Beyond – The Obvious Evidence

[ View the story "Recession Upcoming?" on Storify ]

Ad

Saturday, 17 October 2015

Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 19

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2033, 0.90%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8238, 0.59%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3391, 6.54%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1177, 1.89%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
47.73, -3.56%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.40, -0.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
754, -6.80%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1358, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
119.46, -0.64%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8079, -2.11%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.02%, -3.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
187, 350.17%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
15.05, -11.89%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1967, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1985, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2060, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8025, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8065, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8376, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
16.27, -14.00%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.71,-0.00%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
8

Bearish Indications
6
6

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish. The Vix is back in complacency mode and transports are flashing warning signs. We are entering a weak period for risk assets globally and declines are likely in both indices in the upcoming months following this bounce.


On the Horizon
 China GDP data, ECB and Canada rate decisions, Canada CPI.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The markets rallied last week. Signals are marginally bullish for the upcoming week and this bounce is on the verge of completion. The S and P 500 and several global indices have completed massive bear flags which should resolve to the downside. The markets are expected to encounter resistance at higher levels on any bounces, with the 2035-2045 zone on the S and P 500 acting as major resistance. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Offers

Stock Market News

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Trader Talk

An Amazing Forex Product

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

Refurbished MacBooks

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.